How would you rule this obstruction call?

[steveshane67]

Originally Posted by NCASAUmp

By rule, the umpire decides on the award at the time of the OBS. We can play a million "what if" scenarios, but in the end, it is up to the umpire to decide where s/he believes the runner or batter-runner would have ended up had the OBS never occurred.

Just to be clear, Im not asking to play gotcha, Im asking bc I dont know the correct answer and want to know what others ppls opinion are.

So by that logic, if the OBS led to the defense making a throw that would not have been made if there wasnt OBS, any "extraneous" activity would factor into deciding what base to "award". Is that correct?