The effect of a technical foul on a coach

[so cal lurker]

It must be true—every coach knows that!

There was a study done (I think it was the Israeli Airforce, but not sure) about the effects of screaming at pilots after they had a poor exercise. The trainers pointed to the fact that the pilot yelled at after a poor performance usually did better his next effort—proof that the abuse was effective. Alas, statistical analysis of the performances showed that the supposed performance could be explained by simply regression to the mean—anyone is more likely to have an average performance than a poor performance; the poor performance set a low bar for the next exercise. Add confirmation bias to the mix, and it easy to understand why they trainers believed the yelling was effective.

I think there is something similar with the coaches. Often coaches get unglued when a series of calls go against them. Regression to the mean suggests that will end. When it does, it “confirms” that the yelling worked—even when totally unrelated.