Duke vs. Villanova

[jbduke]

Originally Posted by 26 Year Gap

Don't know but I hope they keep it up!

To the haters: enjoy it while it lasts.

As to whys and wherefores, a lot of it's just random variation. If Laettner misses the buzzer-beaters in '90 and '92, the expectations over the last fifteen years are completely different, and this five-year stretch is much less of a story. Note that if those things had happened, K would not be a lesser coach. On the flip-side, Roy Williams said for many years before '05 that winning a title wouldn't make him a better coach, and I respect him for reiterating the point after he did win one.

More randomness: highly touted Josh McRoberts turned out to be a bust, while the much less hyped Tyler Hansbrough turned into a college superstar. No one was faulting K for recruiting McRoberts, nor did anyone foresee his lack of a substantial contribution to the program.

Going further back, Luol Deng leaves one year sooner than expected, and Sean Livingston never shows up on campus after signing a letter-of-intent. Think about this line-up: Livingston, Deng, Redick, Shelden Williams, and Daniel Ewing. That's who Duke would have rolled out in 2005 had things gone as planned. Think that team wouldn't have at least made the Final Four?

In the last few years, Duke has missed out on two bigs who had Duke as one of two finalists: Patrick Patterson and Greg Monroe. What do you think the last two Duke teams would have done with PP? How about this year's team with Monroe in the mix?

The other big issue in the last four years has been the lack of an elite point guard. No one thought this would be an issue when K signed NPOTY Greg Paulus in 2005, but things didn't work out as planned for Paulus, whose major weakness was largely covered up his freshman year when the dribble penetration he allowed was cleaned up by Shelden Williams. By the time the picture had clarified itself at the end of 2007, the USA Basketball commitment for K had ramped up, and that didn't make it any easier to get a true point guard to come in and back up or start over Paulus.

Certainly Duke's recruiting has suffered in the last two years with K putting country above program. Not a complaint, just an observation. With that commitment now over, expect Duke's recruiting to rise to a level at or near where it was in the early nineties when Duke was hot and the team eight miles south had a pretty fair coach itself.

If Henderson comes back next year, Duke will be a favorite to go to Indianapolis. If he doesn't, the team will likely be about where it was this year, with a second-weekend exit, but should be on a strong upward trajectory for what will likely be K's last four or five years.

It's great to still see the hate, as it means Duke is still the gold standard. When it stops being news that they don't make it past the Sweet 16, it's time to worry.