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  #46 (permalink)  
Old Wed Jul 15, 2020, 06:38pm
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Posts: 2,188
Texas opened everything and you have had some of the highest numbers of cases in recent history.
I would encourage a little research before making assertions that aren't accurate, or at least incomplete or misleading.

First, Texas never really closed. That's a myth. Texas schools, restaurants (dine in), hair salons, and a few other similar places were closed in March by the Gov. but everything else was on a county by county basis. The LARGER counties did, for the most part, close dining in restaurants but frankly, little else. Walmart, Home Depot, etc. was still open and there was never any mask requirement. Hell, I was of the first persons that I saw actually wear a mask in Home Depot some time in late March only because there are a ton of people in there. The important thing to keep in mind here is that the vast majority of the state outside of the metro areas, with the exception of schools, barbers, and restaurants, behaved almost exactly as they did in January, February, and last year. Admittedly that's not tens of millions of people, but it isn't a small number either. Think Lubbock, Amarillo, Temple/Belton, San Angelo, Abilene, Tyler, Sherman/Denison, etc. At least half a million in population there. Maybe more, and that's just off the top of my head right now. To this day, almost all these areas have minimal numbers. Populated areas like Collin County, north of Dallas (cities of Plano, Frisco, McKinney), did not have any local restrictions in March and April and have not had elevated rates of infection, even today.

Second, Texas "opened" all but the schools in early May. Schools, of course, were closed, but there was still no firm mask requirement -- at least not state wide -- it was county by county. We went most of or all of May without any real spike in cases. On May 1, Texas had 29K cases; on May 31, it was 64K. Yes, that's doubled, but it is FAR less than the rate of growth in April where it went up 7 and a half fold!

Third, the case numbers didn't spike until the middle of June, well after "opening" (to the extent there was one) would have affected anything was done. Other factors, which I won't get into, have been looked into but can't be proven. But this disease doesn't have a 5 or 6 week incubation period. Based on when the spike started to occur, it appears the transmissions started accelerating around the very end of May until the first of June. You figure that out for yourself, but I ask you to use facts, data, and logic and not to blindly believe everything you hear in the media. Look at the actual numbers, not the rhetoric spouted off.

Fourth, the Texas numbers, even today, aren't THAT bad. Out of 2.9 million total tests, there are ONLY 282K total cases (less than half are active), and only 3432 deaths. Don't misunderstand: ONE death is tragic and 3432 is horrific. But New York had AT LEAST 18700 CONFIRMED deaths. That was with ONE MILLION FEWER people tested! So, other than deaths, we don't really even know what the New York REAL numbers are or would be.

Finally, there were at least 7 states that never "closed" by any definition. The numbers there (Arkansas, Utah, the Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska, and Wyoming) never seemed to spike. Not exactly huge population centers, but Salt Lake, Little Rock, and Lincoln aren't holes in the ground and these people go other places (heck, they have to!).

So no, they aren't the "highest" numbers because New York death numbers blow Texas' away, and due to testing, we don't know what the real NY numbers are. Testing procedures are better now than they were in May; MUCH better than they were in March. There are a lot of rumors out there about tests and positives, but I won't get into that. Taking all these numbers at face value is more than sufficient for my point: "opening" up (however you want to define it) had NOTHING to do with the spike of cases, to the extent there is one.

Data source for Texas:

Data source for NY:
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old Wed Jul 15, 2020, 06:48pm
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 18,540
Presymptomatic ...

Originally Posted by Texas Aggie View Post
... asymptomatic spread is LARGELY a myth.
"Available evidence from contact tracing reported by countries suggests that asymptomatically infected individuals are much less likely to transmit the virus than those who develop symptoms."WHO EMRO | Transmission of COVID-19 by asymptomatic cases | COVID-19 | Health topics
"Much less likely"? Sure I can go along with that. I would much rather be sitting on a bus next to someone who is completely asymptomatic (but who unknowingly has the virus) than to sit next to someone on a bus who is feverish and coughing (who has the virus).

But there are other scenarios, like if my bus mates wore masks. Even then, I would still prefer to sit next to the asymptomatic bus mate.

Here's more context:

A subset of studies and data shared by some countries on detailed cluster investigations and contact tracing activities have reported that asymptomatically-infected individuals are much less likely to transmit the virus than those who develop symptoms. Comprehensive studies on transmission from asymptomatic patients are difficult to conduct, as they require testing of large population cohorts and more data are needed to better understand and quantified the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2. WHO is working with countries around the world, and global researchers, to gain better evidence-based understanding of the disease as a whole, including the role of asymptomatic patients in the transmission of the virus.

Also, the WHO data provided is a little bit dated (June 11, 2020) and was highly ridiculed by doctors, researchers, and other medical professionals. I believe that they have since come out a little stronger for asymptomatic and/or presymptomatic transmission.

With either asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals, they both don't know that they have the disease, making transmission more likely if they don't socially distance, wear masks, and/or quarantine.

While experts agree that people can pass COVID-19 without ever having symptoms ...

With the exceptions of those with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Asthma, toddlers, and some others, what's the downside to simply wearing a mask?
"For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life." (John 3:16)

“I was in prison and you came to visit me.” (Matthew 25:36)

Last edited by BillyMac; Sat Jul 18, 2020 at 11:44am.
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old Wed Jul 22, 2020, 04:59pm
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 18,540
Out-Of-The-Box Thinking ...

From the NFHS:

... And these decisions must be made differently than the major conferences of the NCAA, or the NBA with its bubble concept or club sports that exist outside the school setting. High school sports are first and foremost education-based programs and complete the academic work during the school day; they do not exist in a vacuum as a training ground for future levels of sport.

Out-of-the-box thinking to provide sports opportunities for as many students as possible perhaps was best exhibited earlier this week by the California Interscholastic Federation (CIF). Due to increasing cases of the virus statewide and the cancellation of in-person classes in the Los Angeles and San Diego school districts for the remainder of the calendar year, the CIF pushed back the start of sports until December.

In order to offer all of its previously planned sports, the CIF is moving from three seasons to two, with typical winter and spring sports played during the same time period. While that small percentage of parents who only have their own interests in mind responded with comments such as “Two seasons – so now they have to pick a sport, this is terrible,’’ the majority were supportive, such as this high school coach: “The guys that are truly committed and take the right mindset will turn this into a positive.”

The Iowa High School Athletic Association (IHSAA) was the first state association to turn the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic into a positive. Although there have been bumps along the way, most schools in Iowa have been able to conduct their normal summer baseball seasons, and the IHSAA state tournament is due to be completed in early August.

By following strict safety protocols, which sometimes included teams discontinuing their seasons if anyone tested positive for the virus, the IHSAA was able to persevere and became the first state to allow students to engage in activities since the shutdown in March. While it wasn’t exactly the same, and students, coaches and parents had to embrace change, the chance to participate made all the obstacles bearable.

In some states, the current levels of positive cases may push back the start of schools and sports, but there is a general belief that the “games will go on.” Whether the schedules have to be adjusted by a few weeks or a few months, state associations remain committed to offering as many activities as possible during the 2020-21 school year.

However, it will take a resolve on the part of everyone to keep going and keep trying. Where guidelines call for masks to be worn and social distancing to be followed, everyone must be working together.

We know that when circumstances change, we must embrace change ...

... We must keep the faith that high school sports and activities remain a part of students’ lives this year – in whatever new and creative ways surface in each state.
"For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life." (John 3:16)

“I was in prison and you came to visit me.” (Matthew 25:36)
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