Game management questions #1 and #2

[Manny A]

Originally Posted by jmkupka

Went to an NCAA clinic last month, had a few college coaches there as speakers... one coach had a great bit of info:

He did the math, and determined that, in the time the ball takes to go from pitcher's hand, to catcher's hand, to F6's glove, it is physically impossible for a runner to cover 60'.

The message being: the only way they're safe is by leaving early...

Ok, so a pitch that leaves the pitcher's hand at 60 mph from, let's say, 40 feet away will get to the catcher in 0.45 sec. A decent pop time is 1.8 sec. So that's 2.25 sec. A good home to first time for a runner is maybe 2.8 sec, so I suppose we can assume the same from first to second. So, yeah, there's about a half second between when the ball gets to F6 and the runner gets to the bag.

But there are a lot of assumptions in this theory, to include:

1. The pitch is a decent fast ball.
2. The pitch is on target so the catcher will catch the pitch cleanly without reaching for it.
3. The catcher will have that good D1 pop time.
4. The throw is on target where F6 doesn't have to reach high for it.

Yeah, if all those conditions are met, it's likely the runner will be gunned out. But how often are they all met? Is it really worth the risk to have the runner leave the base early, and it turns out the pitch was a change-up, or it was in the dirt, or the catcher fumbled the transfer, or her throw was off-line, or...