It came to me in a dream

[MrUmpire]

Originally Posted by Rich Ives

The theory is that the runner has a reasonable expectation that the fielder will make a play so he need not be expected to avoid the ball. Anytime else, he must avoid the ball.

You only have to judge if it passed through or in immediate reach of the fielder.

Very similar to what Evans teaches. He turns it around and puts the emphasis on when it's the runners obligation to avoid the ball.