Didn't like the ending

[jeffpea]

Originally Posted by JugglingReferee

Unfair to who?


In all seriousness, if "being fair" was the ultimate goal, a coin toss would be used. The outcome is 50%. Always.

Is that right?......Why is it that the NFC, including this year, has won the last 11 Super Bowl coin flips to start the game (and 14 of the last 15)? Is that really a 50% outcome? Always?.....

[Berkut]

Originally Posted by jeffpea

Is that right?......Why is it that the NFC, including this year, has won the last 11 Super Bowl coin flips to start the game (and 14 of the last 15)? Is that really a 50% outcome? Always?.....

Yup. Next year the AFC *and* the NFC will both have a 50% chance of wining that same coin toss...

[26 Year Gap]

The AP arrow is the best rule change in the last 30 years. I remember doing VG games in the 70s. Not only were there multiple held balls immediately after a jump ball, but you had to choose which two of the 8 players with their hands on the ball were the first two there. It made long games longer.

[Raymond]

Originally Posted by jeffpea

Is that right?......Why is it that the NFC, including this year, has won the last 11 Super Bowl coin flips to start the game (and 14 of the last 15)? Is that really a 50% outcome? Always?.....

Yep, that means that every year for the last 11 SB's the home and away team have alternated winning the toss..

[Welpe]

Originally Posted by jeffpea

Is that right?......Why is it that the NFC, including this year, has won the last 11 Super Bowl coin flips to start the game (and 14 of the last 15)? Is that really a 50% outcome? Always?.....

A sample of fifteen coin flips is statistcally insignificant.

[Mark Padgett]

Certainly, I do not want to go back to all those jump balls. In fact, when I started, we had one after every basket. I asked Dr. Naismith if he wanted to change that but he said no.

At least I did get him to cut out the bottom of the peach baskets. That speeded up the game somewhat and eliminated the ladder injuries.

[mbyron]

Originally Posted by jeffpea

Is that right?......Why is it that the NFC, including this year, has won the last 11 Super Bowl coin flips to start the game (and 14 of the last 15)? Is that really a 50% outcome? Always?.....

Well, if your question is whether 14/15 is 50%, the answer is no. But the prior probability of flipping a heads is 0.5, even though it doesn't seem that way.

In fact, according to Benford's Law, a long string of the same result would be expected given a long enough series of tosses.

[jeffpea]

my main reason for NOT wanting to "flip a coin" on jump balls is simply because my partners won't use a coin of their own - they're so cheap, they won't "pay attention"....

[JugglingReferee]

Originally Posted by jeffpea

my main reason for NOT wanting to "flip a coin" on jump balls is simply because my partners won't use a coin of their own - they're so cheap, they won't "pay attention"....

Just like the home team provides a game ball, have the home team provide a coin. If they can't produce one, the V gets the first possession. Make sure the coin doesn't have the same picture on each side.

[BillyMac]

Originally Posted by JugglingReferee

Make sure the coin doesn't have the same picture on each side.

Like the double-headed 1922 Peace Dollar trademark coin used by Harvey Dent/Two-Face in the Batman flick, "The Dark Knight", which he flips when making important decisions?

[BillyMac]

Originally Posted by mbyron

According to Benford's Law.

Is that anything like Burke's Law?

"Never ask a question unless you already know the answer. Burke's Law." (Amos Burke)

[ga314ref]

Originally Posted by mbyron

Well, if your question is whether 14/15 is 50%, the answer is no. But the prior probability of flipping a heads is 0.5, even though it doesn't seem that way.

In fact, according to Benford's Law, a long string of the same result would be expected given a long enough series of tosses.

According to Dr. Benford, I'm only 40 years from being even in poker.

[Forksref]

If I were to consider any change in the held ball rule, I'd award the ball to the defensive player's team for a throw-in in order to reward the defense.

This would not be the case on rebounds that were joint possession before either team could get possession. In this case I'd go with the AP.

Thank the Lord that we have AP instead of jump balls. And we all know it came about because of girls BB.

[Adam]

Originally Posted by Forksref

If I were to consider any change in the held ball rule, I'd award the ball to the defensive player's team for a throw-in in order to reward the defense.

This would not be the case on rebounds that were joint possession before either team could get possession. In this case I'd go with the AP.

Thank the Lord that we have AP instead of jump balls. And we all know it came about because of girls BB.

Best thing the NCAA did was get rid of that experiment. The defense gets enough of a reward for this as it is. They either get the ball or force the opponent to use up their arrow to keep it.

[BillyMac]

Originally Posted by jeffpea

Why is it that the NFC, including this year, has won the last 11 Super Bowl coin flips to start the game (and 14 of the last 15)?

At least NFC captains don't call, "Heads, tails", like a Pittsburgh captain did a few years ago, which caused the creation of new rules and mechanics for NFL coin tosses.