Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffpea
Is that right?......Why is it that the NFC, including this year, has won the last 11 Super Bowl coin flips to start the game (and 14 of the last 15)? Is that really a 50% outcome? Always?.....  |
Well, if your question is whether 14/15 is 50%, the answer is no. But the prior probability of flipping a heads is 0.5, even though it doesn't seem that way.
In fact, according to Benford's Law, a long string of the same result would be expected given a long enough series of tosses.