3 FTs proposal

[CMHCoachNRef]

Originally Posted by mbyron

I disagree that the team in the lead is at a disadvantage here. You must figure in the probabilities of making the free throws as opposed to making a 3-point FG.

For example, suppose a team shoots 75% at the line. Then the expected value of 2 FT's would be 2 X .75 = 1.5.

If their opponent is making 33% of the 3-point FG's, then the expected value of their tries would be 3 X .33 = 1 (approximately).

This example might be a little high for HS, a little low for NCAA. But you see the point.

While your numbers hold for a 2-shot FT, 1-and-1s are a different story. You have a .75 on the first shot (75% of 1 shot). But, the second shot is actually only .56 (75% of 75%). This expected value of 1.31 is significantly less than 1.5. If the numbers are actually 67% and 30% (probably closer number at the HS level), the expected numbers are: 1.11 vs. .9. (This explains why a decent number of comebacks utilizing this strategy work as it is an 1.11:.90 as opposed to 1.31:1.0 or 1.5:1.0.

At some point, perhaps a strategy of fouling and making threes should be lessened in value somewhat by making foul 13 and up 3 FTs in lieu of 2 FTs.