When the strike is over

[BlueLawyer]

Just out of curiousity, what happens to the replacements/scabs when (I know, many of you think it's IF) the strike ends? Will replacement blues just walk back into their regular assignments as if they had been there all along? Will they find the guys who took THEIR places eager to give the slots back?

On the other hand, what if the strike doesn't end with AMLU umps coming back? Do the replacements/scabs plan to take three or four years out of their lives to do minor league ball? Maybe two of them will get MLB jobs, but you have to forgive me if I think that idea is far fetched. What happens, say, next year if the AMLU strike is still ongoing? Will the D1/high school/Legion umps who have been working minor league ball forsake their regular assignments to go to work MiLB for good? When these umps lose their regular jobs and their regular baseball assignments, do they expect their fellow umpires to welcome them back with open arms into the "brotherhood"? Why should an umpire who has filled in for a replacement willingly give that slot back?

Things that make me go "hmmmmmmm".

Strikes and outs!

[GarthB]

Originally Posted by BlueLawyer

Just out of curiousity, what happens to the replacements/scabs when (I know, many of you think it's IF) the strike ends? Will replacement blues just walk back into their regular assignments as if they had been there all along? Will they find the guys who took THEIR places eager to give the slots back?

On the other hand, what if the strike doesn't end with AMLU umps coming back? Do the replacements/scabs plan to take three or four years out of their lives to do minor league ball? Maybe two of them will get MLB jobs, but you have to forgive me if I think that idea is far fetched. What happens, say, next year if the AMLU strike is still ongoing? Will the D1/high school/Legion umps who have been working minor league ball forsake their regular assignments to go to work MiLB for good? When these umps lose their regular jobs and their regular baseball assignments, do they expect their fellow umpires to welcome them back with open arms into the "brotherhood"? Why should an umpire who has filled in for a replacement willingly give that slot back?

Things that make me go "hmmmmmmm".

Strikes and outs!

Most replacements I know did not stop working association games, they added MiLB to the mix. Since most work only in their areas and do not travel, this was easy to accomplish.

If this strike results in the death of the current A and AA umpiring system, that may be the result...the minor league games become part of the mix for some umpires.

I would bet that AAA will remain staffed by "full-time part-timers" who will be groomed for MLB. There would probably be some kind of "auditioning" process for umpires to move from A/AA to AAA when openings occur.

Should something like this happen, umpires in A/AA would no longer be slave to MiLB and would definitely be working by choice. Organized baseball would have to deal with the AAA umpires and their issues. It would, for management, be much cleaner to deal with the smaller number of umpires.

The other question is: what happens to the two schools?

[WhatWuzThatBlue]

Just out of curiousity, what happens to the replacements/scabs when (I know, many of you think it's IF) the strike ends?

They will be destroyed by a death beam sent from Birmingham. Just kidding...

Will replacement blues just walk back into their regular assignments as if they had been there all along?

Probably...it's apparent that these guys are willing to umpire for the good of the game and/or they need the money.

Will they find the guys who took THEIR places eager to give the slots back?

I doubt it...they stepped up and filled a niche when the other guy served as a replacement umpire. Few of us are eager to hand back the juicy assignements and take the mundane. However, if they were competent enough to serve as an MiLB replacement, their assignors likely won't ignore them when they return to a regular schedule.

On the other hand, what if the strike doesn't end with AMLU umps coming back?

Then the death ray will be aimed AT Birmingham.

Do the replacements/scabs plan to take three or four years out of their lives to do minor league ball?

Yes. No. Probably. Maybe.
You are talking about several hundred guys - they all of agendas and values, quantifying an entire group is impossible.

Maybe two of them will get MLB jobs, but you have to forgive me if I think that idea is far fetched. What happens, say, next year if the AMLU strike is still ongoing?

It will be interesting to see what happens if the strike is still ongoing and the WUA loses six members. It is not farfetched to think that MLB isn't considering recruiting the best from Japan, Korea, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Australia, Canada or Mexico. They've been rumored to be doing that for a few years.

Will the D1/high school/Legion umps who have been working minor league ball forsake their regular assignments to go to work MiLB for good?

See my previous answer about future assignments.

When these umps lose their regular jobs and their regular baseball assignments, do they expect their fellow umpires to welcome them back with open arms into the "brotherhood"?

Most local associations have loose hierarchys. The best guys usually receive the plums. Assignors would be stupid not to cover their butts and lose talent because the strike is over.

Why should an umpire who has filled in for a replacement willingly give that slot back?

Jiggy would say, "Because they aren't qualified and haven't earned it." Most of us would say that when the replacement trots back to his normal assignments, his partners will want to hear the war stories. Don't kid yourself, plenty of umpires are watching their buddies work those games. They want them to succeed because that opens up another rung on the ladder. But like the WUA, you can only move up when the spot is uncontested.

[socalblue1]

Not a single replacement umpire has even the most remote shot at MLB. The next 5 slots are filled (1, 3 & 5 will be ex-MLB guys as part of the WUA negotiated settlement. 2 & 4 will be one of the current up/down umpires).

[WhatWuzThatBlue]

No one has ever given serious consideration to the idea that the replacements think they will be hired by MLB. I'm just happy that Davidson will represent the best AMLU has to offer. That WBC was sensational.

[SAump]

Half of the replacements will balk at spending the month in AZ or FL because they cannot afford to risk their DAY JOB.

MLB will begin to recruit NEW UMPIRE REPLACEMENTS (ex-MLB, MILB w/ no shot at making PROS, ex college players, DOMINICANS, etc.).

Once the replacements figure OUT how much the LL UMP is making per day, he too will WISH FOR A RISE IN SALARY. Windy will ask them to stop belly aching over MONEY and step UP to the plate. Management will CRY, "If you don't LIKE the PAY, GO BACK HOME."

There will eventually be an increase in PAY or a SHORTAGE of UMPIRES at that level. The DREAM will be there, but NOT for LEGAL AMERICANS as their jobs are outsourced to the lowest denomination, SCABS.

Eventually older SCABS will HEAL or disappear from the game. The questions remains on whether the SCARS will REAMAIN or disappear over time.

Things will improve as both sides begin to TALK to ONE ANOTHER.

[mbyron]

Originally Posted by GarthB

The other question is: what happens to the two schools?

I've thought a little about this other question. My tentative conclusion is that the schools will remain in business with their current model as long as MiLB requires its umps to have attended pro school. This requirement can remain in place without the rest of the current system (post graduate PBUC combine, short A or rookie, long A, etc. up the system).

Alternatively, MiLB might not require school prior to assigning short A or rookie games, but require it prior to an umpire working AA or AAA. The schools could manage that too, though there would be less demand.

When you consider that under the current system, only 10-15% of pro school grads get a job in pro ball anyway, and that for each of the past 10 years the schools have had over 100 students, we might well conclude that the odds of getting a job are not decisive for those deciding whether to attend pro school.

Finally, however much demand for pro school should happen to drop off, I imagine that the schools will begin to offer more (or, for Harry's, some) week long clinics for non-pro umpires.

[PeteBooth]

[QUOTE=BlueLawyer]Just out of curiousity, what happens to the replacements/scabs when (I know, many of you think it's IF) the strike ends? Will replacement blues just walk back into their regular assignments as if they had been there all along? Will they find the guys who took THEIR places eager to give the slots back?

IMO, if the union is dissolved there will no longer be "Full Time" Umpires at the Minor league level.

Umpires will become independent contractors and the "pool" will be regional. The hours of traveling, living in shabby hotels and less than healthy meals will go away.

The umpires will get their 'lives" back, pursue other business opportunities and treat umpiring the way most of us do who umpire at the HS level as a "secondary" job or source of income. That's what the bulk of the strike is all about anyway so why would the umpires want to go back to that type of environment.

By being an independ contractor, you would not have to travel the way one did in the past. You could stay in the comfort of your own home and eat well.

The PBUC would either be be restructured or fold as well, because if you are an independent contractor you do not need the PBUC.

In order to umpire professional baseball, one would still need to attend a PRO School and get the certificate. When you receive your certificate, your name would then go into some sort of data-base similar to when we first got HS certified. Once you pass the HS test and are now certified, your name goes to the assignor who sends you an availability sheet.

In HS most start at the modified level and work their way up. I would assume (boy that's trouble) that this new system would be similar. You would start at the "A" division and work your way up.

The good part about a new system would be at the Triple A level. Just because you didn't make it to the "Show" in 2/3 yrs. would not result in an automatic dismissal from major league baseball.

Bottom Line: if the Union Folds Umpiring at the Minor league Level will become part time.

Pete Booth

[mcrowder]

May I congratulate those who have posted so far... this is the first thread remotely related to the strike that has been civil for this long. And it's a pleasure to read the reasoned, thought out responses, without the bitterness and namecalling attached to the rest of these threads.

I suspect a variant somewhere between what was mentioned above and where we were a year ago. I think that if a system develops where all umpires are local (which is possible), it won't take too long for the teams to realize just how home-slanted this may end up being. I think that even the very best umpires, if faced with 2 years of only umpire the home games for a specific team, could not avoid at least a small amount of bias, even if it's subconscious. And even if the bias is NOT there, the appearance of bias will be.

So eventually, if the strike breaks the union and umpires become contractors, SOME sort of travelling system would have to be born from this. It may even be that local leagues set the rules that allow them to be profitable and still rotate umpires (possibly VERY similar to what was in place a year ago), and simply say - if you want to work, these are the rules. If they find enough umpires willing to do this, then as far as the teams are concerned, the system will work. Quality may suffer, but until quality becomes a bigger issue to the teams than the bottom line, they will simply cope with it.

JMHO.

[jwwashburn]

Originally Posted by mcrowder

May I congratulate those who have posted so far... this is the first thread remotely related to the strike that has been civil for this long. And it's a pleasure to read the reasoned, thought out responses, without the bitterness and namecalling attached to the rest of these threads.

I suspect a variant somewhere between what was mentioned above and where we were a year ago. I think that if a system develops where all umpires are local (which is possible), it won't take too long for the teams to realize just how home-slanted this may end up being. I think that even the very best umpires, if faced with 2 years of only umpire the home games for a specific team, could not avoid at least a small amount of bias, even if it's subconscious. And even if the bias is NOT there, the appearance of bias will be.

So eventually, if the strike breaks the union and umpires become contractors, SOME sort of travelling system would have to be born from this. It may even be that local leagues set the rules that allow them to be profitable and still rotate umpires (possibly VERY similar to what was in place a year ago), and simply say - if you want to work, these are the rules. If they find enough umpires willing to do this, then as far as the teams are concerned, the system will work. Quality may suffer, but until quality becomes a bigger issue to the teams than the bottom line, they will simply cope with it.

JMHO.

I agree, in part. But, name calling is not civil.

[jwwashburn]

Originally Posted by mcrowder

I just reread it all, and didn't see any namecalling... but if you did, no need to point it out and derail things - we've almost gone a whole page with positive results so far.

You did not see SCABS???

[socalblue1]

The end result could go a number of directions IMO, the most likely outcome would be:

1. Short season leagues will use a pool of umpires supplied by PBUC. These will be school grads and a secondary pool of local umpires so that all games can be covered with limited travel.

2. Long A / AA are, I think, the big question marks. IMO it would depend on what MiLB allows the individual leagues to do in regard to umpiring (Must use PBUC or ???).

2. AAA umpires are managed by MLB. I don't see this changing much, though I could see PCL & IL going back to a small pool of 'staff umpires' on a regional basis to cover the slots not filled by MLB up/down umpires.

I can see three scenerios:

1. AMLU, through pressure from MLB & MiLB teams/leagues, is able to win a decent contract.

2. MiLB holds out. Goes back to the pre-PBUC days where each league supplies it's own umpires via a mix of PBUC (UDP) grads and 'staff umpires'.

3. MLB steps in and takes over all umpire development. IMO this makes the most sense, though it the least likely to happen. MLB got rid of UDP & umpire development & may not be willing to take it back (Of course MiLB would love it - no expenses).

[SanDiegoSteve]

Originally Posted by WhatWuzThatBlue

I'm just happy that Davidson will represent the best AMLU has to offer. That WBC was sensational.

[Clint Lawson]

Somebody has no idea what they are talking about but Davidson is not and has never been in the ALMU. Good job there.

[SAump]

Originally Posted by socalblue1

The end result could go a number of directions IMO, the most likely outcome would be:

1. Short season leagues will use a pool of umpires supplied by PBUC. These will be school grads and a secondary pool of local umpires so that all games can be covered with limited travel.

2. Long A / AA are, I think, the big question marks. IMO it would depend on what MiLB allows the individual leagues to do in regard to umpiring (Must use PBUC or ???).

2. AAA umpires are managed by MLB. I don't see this changing much, though I could see PCL & IL going back to a small pool of 'staff umpires' on a regional basis to cover the slots not filled by MLB up/down umpires.

I can see three scenerios:

1. AMLU, through pressure from MLB & MiLB teams/leagues, is able to win a decent contract.

2. MiLB holds out. Goes back to the pre-PBUC days where each league supplies it's own umpires via a mix of PBUC (UDP) grads and 'staff umpires'.

3. MLB steps in and takes over all umpire development. IMO this makes the most sense, though it the least likely to happen. MLB got rid of UDP & umpire development & may not be willing to take it back (Of course MiLB would love it - no expenses).

Good post. You state 3 is unlikely and I agree. That leaves 1 or 2 left. The AMLU leadership will have a very good LAW suit if 2 is selected. No one has talked about it, but after the last fiasco, some of the MLB UMPS were paid settlements after a very expensive lawsuit. Ritchie Phillips is still awaiting for his JUDGMENT DAY to run its course. Would alternative 1 not be cheaper for PBUC? I don't think PBUC has the CASH MLB had to pay a major settlement case. Not when a few extra 100 thousand dollars avoids all the legal questions.