When the strike is over

[PeteBooth]

[QUOTE=BlueLawyer]Just out of curiousity, what happens to the replacements/scabs when (I know, many of you think it's IF) the strike ends? Will replacement blues just walk back into their regular assignments as if they had been there all along? Will they find the guys who took THEIR places eager to give the slots back?

IMO, if the union is dissolved there will no longer be "Full Time" Umpires at the Minor league level.

Umpires will become independent contractors and the "pool" will be regional. The hours of traveling, living in shabby hotels and less than healthy meals will go away.

The umpires will get their 'lives" back, pursue other business opportunities and treat umpiring the way most of us do who umpire at the HS level as a "secondary" job or source of income. That's what the bulk of the strike is all about anyway so why would the umpires want to go back to that type of environment.

By being an independ contractor, you would not have to travel the way one did in the past. You could stay in the comfort of your own home and eat well.

The PBUC would either be be restructured or fold as well, because if you are an independent contractor you do not need the PBUC.

In order to umpire professional baseball, one would still need to attend a PRO School and get the certificate. When you receive your certificate, your name would then go into some sort of data-base similar to when we first got HS certified. Once you pass the HS test and are now certified, your name goes to the assignor who sends you an availability sheet.

In HS most start at the modified level and work their way up. I would assume (boy that's trouble) that this new system would be similar. You would start at the "A" division and work your way up.

The good part about a new system would be at the Triple A level. Just because you didn't make it to the "Show" in 2/3 yrs. would not result in an automatic dismissal from major league baseball.

Bottom Line: if the Union Folds Umpiring at the Minor league Level will become part time.

Pete Booth

[mcrowder]

May I congratulate those who have posted so far... this is the first thread remotely related to the strike that has been civil for this long. And it's a pleasure to read the reasoned, thought out responses, without the bitterness and namecalling attached to the rest of these threads.

I suspect a variant somewhere between what was mentioned above and where we were a year ago. I think that if a system develops where all umpires are local (which is possible), it won't take too long for the teams to realize just how home-slanted this may end up being. I think that even the very best umpires, if faced with 2 years of only umpire the home games for a specific team, could not avoid at least a small amount of bias, even if it's subconscious. And even if the bias is NOT there, the appearance of bias will be.

So eventually, if the strike breaks the union and umpires become contractors, SOME sort of travelling system would have to be born from this. It may even be that local leagues set the rules that allow them to be profitable and still rotate umpires (possibly VERY similar to what was in place a year ago), and simply say - if you want to work, these are the rules. If they find enough umpires willing to do this, then as far as the teams are concerned, the system will work. Quality may suffer, but until quality becomes a bigger issue to the teams than the bottom line, they will simply cope with it.

JMHO.

[jwwashburn]

Originally Posted by mcrowder

May I congratulate those who have posted so far... this is the first thread remotely related to the strike that has been civil for this long. And it's a pleasure to read the reasoned, thought out responses, without the bitterness and namecalling attached to the rest of these threads.

I suspect a variant somewhere between what was mentioned above and where we were a year ago. I think that if a system develops where all umpires are local (which is possible), it won't take too long for the teams to realize just how home-slanted this may end up being. I think that even the very best umpires, if faced with 2 years of only umpire the home games for a specific team, could not avoid at least a small amount of bias, even if it's subconscious. And even if the bias is NOT there, the appearance of bias will be.

So eventually, if the strike breaks the union and umpires become contractors, SOME sort of travelling system would have to be born from this. It may even be that local leagues set the rules that allow them to be profitable and still rotate umpires (possibly VERY similar to what was in place a year ago), and simply say - if you want to work, these are the rules. If they find enough umpires willing to do this, then as far as the teams are concerned, the system will work. Quality may suffer, but until quality becomes a bigger issue to the teams than the bottom line, they will simply cope with it.

JMHO.

I agree, in part. But, name calling is not civil.

[jwwashburn]

Originally Posted by mcrowder

I just reread it all, and didn't see any namecalling... but if you did, no need to point it out and derail things - we've almost gone a whole page with positive results so far.

You did not see SCABS???

[socalblue1]

The end result could go a number of directions IMO, the most likely outcome would be:

1. Short season leagues will use a pool of umpires supplied by PBUC. These will be school grads and a secondary pool of local umpires so that all games can be covered with limited travel.

2. Long A / AA are, I think, the big question marks. IMO it would depend on what MiLB allows the individual leagues to do in regard to umpiring (Must use PBUC or ???).

2. AAA umpires are managed by MLB. I don't see this changing much, though I could see PCL & IL going back to a small pool of 'staff umpires' on a regional basis to cover the slots not filled by MLB up/down umpires.

I can see three scenerios:

1. AMLU, through pressure from MLB & MiLB teams/leagues, is able to win a decent contract.

2. MiLB holds out. Goes back to the pre-PBUC days where each league supplies it's own umpires via a mix of PBUC (UDP) grads and 'staff umpires'.

3. MLB steps in and takes over all umpire development. IMO this makes the most sense, though it the least likely to happen. MLB got rid of UDP & umpire development & may not be willing to take it back (Of course MiLB would love it - no expenses).

[SAump]

Originally Posted by socalblue1

The end result could go a number of directions IMO, the most likely outcome would be:

1. Short season leagues will use a pool of umpires supplied by PBUC. These will be school grads and a secondary pool of local umpires so that all games can be covered with limited travel.

2. Long A / AA are, I think, the big question marks. IMO it would depend on what MiLB allows the individual leagues to do in regard to umpiring (Must use PBUC or ???).

2. AAA umpires are managed by MLB. I don't see this changing much, though I could see PCL & IL going back to a small pool of 'staff umpires' on a regional basis to cover the slots not filled by MLB up/down umpires.

I can see three scenerios:

1. AMLU, through pressure from MLB & MiLB teams/leagues, is able to win a decent contract.

2. MiLB holds out. Goes back to the pre-PBUC days where each league supplies it's own umpires via a mix of PBUC (UDP) grads and 'staff umpires'.

3. MLB steps in and takes over all umpire development. IMO this makes the most sense, though it the least likely to happen. MLB got rid of UDP & umpire development & may not be willing to take it back (Of course MiLB would love it - no expenses).

Good post. You state 3 is unlikely and I agree. That leaves 1 or 2 left. The AMLU leadership will have a very good LAW suit if 2 is selected. No one has talked about it, but after the last fiasco, some of the MLB UMPS were paid settlements after a very expensive lawsuit. Ritchie Phillips is still awaiting for his JUDGMENT DAY to run its course. Would alternative 1 not be cheaper for PBUC? I don't think PBUC has the CASH MLB had to pay a major settlement case. Not when a few extra 100 thousand dollars avoids all the legal questions.