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Obviously this is a judgment as to whether the runner would have broken away on his own. But watch the clip again, focusing only on #12. What was his objective at the crucial moment? He certainly wasn't looking to block anyone.
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Actually, the judgement is not what the runner would have done absent the illegal act, but rather whether there was an illegal act or not. Watching this on film, from this angle, I believe BJ has a rare point. Would I have the guts to call this on the field? Maybe not. Would I have seen the "obvious" had my angle been at field level, while running, while in traffic? Almost definitely not.
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