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Adam Mon Feb 14, 2011 04:07pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by bainsey (Post 730003)
I'll take that as a "no," which proves my point. You can affect the outcome of a game with a kicked call at any time. The only difference, as Bob pointed out, is the scrutiny is greater at the end. That's because people can only remember so much.

No, that's not the only difference. And Bob didn't say it was. Your point isn't proven at all. I don't think it's okay to make a mistake at any point. But mistakes happen.

I do think a mistake made with 1 second has more potential to change the actual outcome (who wins or loses) than a mistake made 1 minute into the 1st quarter.

Where I struggle is in understanding how this is even debatable.

Raymond Mon Feb 14, 2011 04:07pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by bainsey (Post 729968)
Very well, then. Let's say that you completely kick a block/charge call in the first quarter. A1 drives to the basket, goes airborne, B2 hits LGP too late, the basket is good, and a crash ensues. You stupidly call a charge and wave off the basket. How is Team A ever going to make up for those two points you just negated?

The only thing Team A can do it is keep playing and do the best it can. I don't see how it can "make up" for your mistake.


You can certainly affect a close game's outcome at its end, but in reality, no more than you can affect it via a first-quarter kick. While plays and score situations certainly cascade as the game goes on, you can still affect a close game's outcome at any time. The question is whether anyone will remember it, and people are typically too caught up in the game's emotion to remember something early.

Mind you, that doesn't give anyone permission not to bring their A-game early. Quite the contrary, bring it and maintain it throughout. You will have an effect in a close game, just make sure it's not a negative one.

I can tell you that college supervisors and successful officials will tell you there is a big difference between kicking a call in the 1st quarter and kicking a call in the last 2 minutes. As has been pointed out, teams have time to overcome a bad call made early in the game.

I guarantee you that if you and I were in camp and you kicked a call big-time in the 1st quarter and I kicked a called in the last minute with the score tied and all other things being equal, you are going to come out with a higher rating than me. Difference being is that your 1st quarter kicked call will just be thought of a brain-fart while my last minute kicked call will be thought of as me wilting under pressure. My kicked call will also be looked at as hampering a team's chance to win that game.

You may not agree with that philosophy but that is the reality of the situation.

Tell me this, who's interception was more detrimental to his team's chances of winning, Manning's pick-6 against the Saints or Big Ben's pick-6 against the Packers? Both put their teams down by 14 points.

tref Mon Feb 14, 2011 04:07pm

"If you're gonna kick one, dont make it a gamer!" - Violet Palmer

bainsey Mon Feb 14, 2011 04:53pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadNewsRef (Post 730010)
You may not agree with that philosophy but that is the reality of the situation.

If, by this, you mean, the reality is this is how most people perceive it, I certainly won't argue that.

However, let's look at your camp example. Would it be a fair evaluation to say that you wilted with your late-game kick? Could you have simply had a brain fart, too, or is it right to jump all the way to pressure crack? It sounds to me like the evaluator could also be too caught up in the emotion of the situation. It's true that people are going to be a lot more emotional regarding a last-minute or last-second kick, but I submit the only way to be accurate is to take emotion out of the equation.

Look at it this way. Let's say you had a play-by-play print-out of a one-point game, complete with a list of calls that were confirmed to be kicked. If those kicks affect the score at any time, they can certainly affect the outcome. Just because they're not fresh in someone's mind, doesn't mean it never happened. Others may "feel good" that they can overcome your mistake, but when you take the emotion out, your error still played a role.

This is where I make my point that officials affecting the outcome of a close game is inevitable. That's not to be flippant. On the contrary, everything we do matters out there, so it may be better not to get caught up in the late-game hype.

Quote:

Tell me this, who's [sic] interception was more detrimental to his team's chances of winning, Manning's pick-6 against the Saints or Big Ben's pick-6 against the Packers?
Great question. Most might say Porter's return, because it came with roughly three minutes left, but when you take an overhead look, the Steelers only lost by six points, so even though Collins took it back in the first, you can argue that pick-six loomed even larger. There's no easy answer on that one.

Adam Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:01pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by bainsey (Post 730020)
If, by this, you mean, the reality is this is how most people perceive it, I certainly won't argue that.

Are you seriously trying to say that just because two mistakes cost the same amount of points that they have the same impact even if one is in the first quarter and the other occurs as the 4th quarter expires?

cmhjordan23 Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:06pm

Another thing to add is some people may say officials tend to call more fouls late in the game. The only reason that may be true is because teams tend to amp up the intensity towards the end which may causes some to play a little out of control.

bainsey Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:09pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snaqwells (Post 730024)
Are you seriously trying to say that just because two mistakes cost the same amount of points that they have the same impact even if one is in the first quarter and the other occurs as the 4th quarter expires?

Yes, that can happen. There are some things that cannot be "made up" from an official's mistake.

Quote:

Where I struggle is in understanding how this is even debatable.
Take another look at my kicked block/charge example, and the points lost from it. Just because a team can "overcome" someone else's mistakes doesn't change that a team is paying the price for the mistake in the first place.

Raymond Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:10pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by bainsey (Post 730020)
If, by this, you mean, the reality is this is how most people perceive it, I certainly won't argue that.

However, let's look at your camp example. Would it be a fair evaluation to say that you wilted with your late-game kick? Could you have simply had a brain fart, too, or is it right to jump all the way to pressure crack? It sounds to me like the evaluator could also be too caught up in the emotion of the situation. It's true that people are going to be a lot more emotional regarding a last-minute or last-second kick, but I submit the only way to be accurate is to take emotion out of the equation.

Look at it this way. Let's say you had a play-by-play print-out of a one-point game, complete with a list of calls that were confirmed to be kicked. If those kicks affect the score at any time, they can certainly affect the outcome. Just because they're not fresh in someone's mind, doesn't mean it never happened. Others may "feel good" that they can overcome your mistake, but when you take the emotion out, your error still played a role.

This is where I make my point that officials affecting the outcome of a close game is inevitable. That's not to be flippant. On the contrary, everything we do matters out there, so it may be better not to get caught up in the late-game hype.

...

But unfortunately success in moving up the ladder in this profession relies heavily on perception. Yes, when talking to a fan I'm gonna make the same statement as you would "hey, there were a lot a calls/no-calls that affected the outcome of your game", but when it's just us officials in a room and we are being completely candid, that bad foul call with 10 seconds left looms a lot larger than the equally bad call made in the 2nd quarter.

Adam Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:12pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by bainsey (Post 730028)
Yes, that can happen. There are some things that cannot be "made up" from an official's mistake.

I didn't ask if it "can happen." No one here has denied that a 1st quarter mistake can be big. Although the likelihood that a 1Q mistake could actually cost a team the game is so small as to be safely ignored. You seem to be suggesting that a 1Q mistake is always equal to the equivalent mistake as time expires.

Raymond Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:13pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by bainsey (Post 730020)
...
Great question. Most might say Porter's return, because it came with roughly three minutes left, but when you take an overhead look, the Steelers only lost by six points, so even though Collins took it back in the first, you can argue that pick-six loomed even larger. There's no easy answer on that one.


When we take a overhead look most people will say Pittsburgh had recovered from that pick-6 by the 4th quarter and the mistake Mendenhahl made had more affect on the final outcome.

That's just my opinion but I think you see what I'm getting at.

I know there is one cliche' I've heard from the very first time I started attending camps. "39 minutes of perfect officiating can be ruined and forgotten by 1 big mistake in the final minute".

Adam Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:13pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadNewsRef (Post 730029)
But unfortunately success in moving up the ladder in this profession relies heavily on perception. Yes, when talking to a fan I'm gonna make the same statement as you would "hey, there were a lot a calls/no-calls that affected the outcome of your game", but when it's just us officials in a room and we are being completely candid, that bad foul call with 10 seconds left looms a lot larger than the equally bad call made in the 2nd quarter.

Not only is it perceived as larger; it is larger.

bainsey Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:25pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadNewsRef (Post 730029)
But unfortunately success in moving up the ladder in this profession relies heavily on perception.

No argument there either.

I had one buzzer-beater game this year. Team A had to go the length of the court, down 1, I was the L, :07 left. Just before my partner administered the throw in, all I could think of was, "don't.... miss... anything!" I braced for any impending play in the lane.

Of course, it never got there. My partner had a hand-check at the division line with :02 left, double bonus. A1 missed both, but A2 got the rebound, and got the shot off with it falling at the buzzer.

Now, Team B's fans were grumpy about my partner's last call, so all the focus is on him. But, there's no question that I may have done some things during that game to affect its outcome. That's the reality.

But, as you correctly pointed out, it's likely not the perception.

bainsey Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:26pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snaqwells (Post 730031)
You seem to be suggesting that a 1Q mistake is always equal to the equivalent mistake as time expires.

Didn't say "always." In a close game, though, it can certainly play a role.

Adam Mon Feb 14, 2011 05:29pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by bainsey (Post 730044)
Didn't say "always." In a close game, though, it can certainly play a role.

Really? I must have misunderstood this post, then:

Quote:

Originally Posted by bainsey (Post 729923)
Slightly better, but I still think you're missing the point.

A team doesn't "lose on [a] foul." They win or lose on the score, which is always cumulative of the entire game, including the calls you make.

In a close game, something you may or may not have called in the first quarter affects the game's outcome every bit as something you may or may not have called in the last minute. In basketball, we often hear, "THAT decided the game." It's never just THAT. It's always a series of things. To pin an outcome on one play -- no matter how memorable it may be -- is really a lazy-minded outlook. In a close game, you can often find at least a dozen things that could have changed the outcome.

We're obviously talking about close games. For games that aren't close, this entire discussion is moot.

bainsey Mon Feb 14, 2011 06:09pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snaqwells (Post 730046)
We're obviously talking about close games. For games that aren't close, this entire discussion is moot.

Right!

The score is always cumulative of the entire game, but the wider the margin, the less likely your calls will affect its outcome (unless your calls are so ridiculously lopsided toward one team that you need to be called on the carpet).


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