3 FTs proposal

[mbyron]

Originally Posted by Nevadaref

The idea is to negate most of the value of the late fouling strategy by penalizing a team for quickly fouling (before twenty seconds runs off the clock) and undermining the goal of trading two points for three. Right now the team awarded the free throws is put at a disadvantage by not having the opportunity to score as many points as their opponent on each possession.

I disagree that the team in the lead is at a disadvantage here. You must figure in the probabilities of making the free throws as opposed to making a 3-point FG.

For example, suppose a team shoots 75% at the line. Then the expected value of 2 FT's would be 2 X .75 = 1.5.

If their opponent is making 33% of the 3-point FG's, then the expected value of their tries would be 3 X .33 = 1 (approximately).

This example might be a little high for HS, a little low for NCAA. But you see the point.

The fact that FT's are much easier to make than 3-point FG's means that trading a chance for 2 against a chance for 3 is often to the advantage of the team in the lead.

The probabilities in my examples are just that: examples. The team in the lead needs to make their FT's to stay ahead, and if they shoot only 25% at the end of the game they can lose. The team that's behind needs to make their 3 pointers, and if they shoot 60% they can win. But I think that overall the probabilities are well balanced as the rule stands.

Take away this argument, and what is the rationale for the rule change? To shorten games? But why shorten an exciting part of the game?