WARNING!! Annual Off-Topic Baseball Thread. Esteemed Members BEWARE!!

[ChuckElias]

Originally Posted by Dan_ref

I don't think he believes it's his birthright to win every year.

Well, you're closer to things there than I am obviously, but I can tell you that it sure seems that way outside of NYC. He never says, "What a great season we had. What a fantastic effort after the All-Star break to win the division. I'm proud of the way the guys played in the face of all the injuries we suffered. We just came up a little short against a very good opponent in this series." You only ever hear, "Heads will roll".

The goal of a baseball team is to win the WS. How is it NOT a failure if you fail to attain that goal???

If that's your ONLY goal, then I agree with you. But it's also insane if that's your only goal. Every MLB team would love to win the World Series. But do you really think that the Royals or the Devil Rays had the goal of winning the World Series back in March? Of course not. They had no realistic chance of attaining a winning record, let alone wins in the playoffs. While they would love to make the World Series, they have other more realistic goals by which to judge the success of their season. My goal is to work the NCAA tournament someday. If I don't ever do that, is my officiating career a failure? Of course not.

A more realistic measure of success for a baseball team is to make the playoffs. As every player, coach, and announcer says, anything can happen in a short series. It's very possible for the better team to lose a best-of-5 series. Even after making the playoffs, you only have a 1-in-8 chance of winning the World Series, at best.

And again, if anybody thinks Lou Pinella gives the Yankees a better chance of winning a World Series than Torre does, that's insane, too.

[mick]

Originally Posted by ChuckElias

Well, you're closer to things there than I am obviously, but I can tell you that it sure seems that way outside of NYC. He never says, "What a great season we had. What a fantastic effort after the All-Star break to win the division. I'm proud of the way the guys played in the face of all the injuries we suffered. We just came up a little short against a very good opponent in this series." You only ever hear, "Heads will roll".

If that's your ONLY goal, then I agree with you. But it's also insane if that's your only goal. Every MLB team would love to win the World Series. But do you really think that the Royals or the Devil Rays had the goal of winning the World Series back in March? Of course not. They had no realistic chance of attaining a winning record, let alone wins in the playoffs. While they would love to make the World Series, they have other more realistic goals by which to judge the success of their season. My goal is to work the NCAA tournament someday. If I don't ever do that, is my officiating career a failure? Of course not.

A more realistic measure of success for a baseball team is to make the playoffs. As every player, coach, and announcer says, anything can happen in a short series. It's very possible for the better team to lose a best-of-5 series. Even after making the playoffs, you only have a 1-in-8 chance of winning the World Series, at best.

And again, if anybody thinks Lou Pinella gives the Yankees a better chance of winning a World Series than Torre does, that's insane, too.

Goals will differ, Chuck, and it has nothing to do with sanity, but probably closer to reality.

It wasn't unbelievable that the Yankees or Red Sox, ... or White Sox, would win this year's WS. And if that was their goal, it was truely reachable.

...Detroit met their goal of .500 ball.

[Dan_ref]

Originally Posted by ChuckElias

Well, you're closer to things there than I am obviously, but I can tell you that it sure seems that way outside of NYC. He never says, "What a great season we had. What a fantastic effort after the All-Star break to win the division. I'm proud of the way the guys played in the face of all the injuries we suffered. We just came up a little short against a very good opponent in this series." You only ever hear, "Heads will roll".

So some person who's sunk literally billions of dollars into his professional sports franchise should just shrug and say "Oh well...nice try fellas"?

If that's your ONLY goal, then I agree with you. But it's also insane if that's your only goal.

If you own an majority stake in a multi-billion dollar business your goal should be *less* than the best you can do?

My goal is to work the NCAA tournament someday. If I don't ever do that, is my officiating career a failure? Of course not.

With all due respect this comparison is stupid.

A more realistic measure of success for a baseball team is to make the playoffs. As every player, coach, and announcer says, anything can happen in a short series. It's very possible for the better team to lose a best-of-5 series. Even after making the playoffs, you only have a 1-in-8 chance of winning the World Series, at best.

Your statistics assume random outcomes of a fair game. Obviously the outcome of a professional sporting event is neither random nor fair.

And again, if anybody thinks Lou Pinella gives the Yankees a better chance of winning a World Series than Torre does, that's insane, too.

Opinions...everybody's got one.

:shrug:

[ChuckElias]

Originally Posted by Dan_ref

So some person who's sunk literally billions of dollars into his professional sports franchise should just shrug and say "Oh well...nice try fellas"?

With all due respect. . . Nah, never mind

If you own an majority stake in a multi-billion dollar business your goal should be *less* than the best you can do?

With all due respect this comparison is stupid.

The point of the comparison, which I perhaps didn't make very well, is that when a large number of people or organizations have the same goal and only one person or organization can achieve it, it's not unreasonable to be satisfied with a lesser accomplishment. Have a grand goal, by all means. But if that goal is not very likely (and even for the pre-season favorite, it's not all that likely), have a reasonable goal as a measure of success.

That was the point of my comparison. I have a grand goal, which is not very likely. So I also have other "reasonable" goals that, if achieved, will make my officiating career a success.

And while you question this as shooting for "less than the best you can do", you pointedly ignored my comments about the Devil Rays and Royals, who would love to win a World Series, but have almost no chance of doing so.

Your statistics assume random outcomes of a fair game. Obviously the outcome of a professional sporting event is neither random nor fair.

Yes, I know. I'm no good at all with probabilities. I was hoping that my numbers would give a decent picture. I should have known not to try to get them past you.

[Dan_ref]

Originally Posted by ChuckElias

And while you question this as shooting for "less than the best you can do", you pointedly ignored my comments about the Devil Rays and Royals, who would love to win a World Series, but have almost no chance of doing so.

And why is that? Simply because the TB & Royals ownership are not willing to invest billions (yes BILLIONS) of dollars to make it more likely that their team will win the WS. To the NY ownership winning the WS equates directly in additional revenue, it's that simple. Obviously the Royal ownership has decided the investment needed to make a WS win more likely is not worth it. It's not their strategy. I doubt they would LOVE to win the WS because they don't INVEST in it. In fact, if they DID win the WS they would clean house within a couple of years because they could not support the salary structure to keep the winning team.

Let's face it, these people took a hell of a lot of money to come play in NY for this particular owner. I'm quite sure none of them have a line in their contract that says "Just do your best, it doesn't matter how we finish" in their contract. Their performance after mid-way thru game 2 was - in very real terms - a sad failure.

[ChuckElias]

Originally Posted by Dan_ref

I doubt they would LOVE to win the WS because they don't INVEST in it.

Of course they would love to. You even admitted as much on the previous page when you said:

The goal of a baseball team is to win the WS.

So they would love to win a World Series, but their chances are so slim (due in large part to their own choices, admittedly) that they gauge a successful season by a lesser standard.

I'm merely suggesting that King George recognize that his chances of winning a World Series are also slim (although greater than KC's, obviously) and so set a secondary -- more realistic -- goal, such as making the playoffs, by which to gauge the success of the season.

[Dan_ref]

Originally Posted by ChuckElias

So they would love to win a World Series, but their chances are so slim (due in large part to their own choices, admittedly) that they gauge a successful season by a lesser standard.

Well, not to beat this dead horse too much further but they obviously would not LOVE to win the WS. If they would LOVE to win the WS they would invest to do so. What they do LOVE to do, apparently, is to focus on eliminating as much expense out of their business as possible by limiting payroll.

I'm merely suggesting that King George recognize that his chances of winning a World Series are also slim (although greater than KC's, obviously) and so set a secondary -- more realistic -- goal, such as making the playoffs, by which to gauge the success of the season.

I guess you can send King George a check to take an ownership stake and then your opinion of what his business goals should & shouldn't be will have some value.

[M&M Guy]

Originally Posted by Dan_ref

Well, not to beat this dead horse too much further but they obviously would not LOVE to win the WS. If they would LOVE to win the WS they would invest to do so. What they do LOVE to do, apparently, is to focus on eliminating as much expense out of their business as possible by limiting payroll.

I guess you can send King George a check to take an ownership stake and then your opinion of what his business goals should & shouldn't be will have some value.

Looking at from a strictly business standpoint, if I'm going to write my check for my stake in the Yankee franchise, I'm happy with how things ended up this year. How much extra would have ended up on the 2006 bottom line if the Yankess had gone on and won the World Series? Possibly the revenue from 5 or 6 more home games? Over the course of a 81-game home season, that's not much. Will the franchise now be worth less overall because they didn't win this year? Not really. Would the franchise be worth more if they had won the WS this year? Over the long term, not really. Will the television revenue go down next year because they didn't win? Nope. Did the team get less publicity because they didn't win? Uh, nope. Will the sales of Yankee merchandise go down because they didn't advance past the first round? Most likely not.

Sucess is a part of the value of a franchise, but not the whole. All I have to do is say "Cubs". You can't say they have a valuable franchise because of all the winning. There are many other factors that go into a good business. George is passionate about his business, and that's good. But it appears as though he might be too emotionally wrapped up in it, which is bad from a business standpoint. You have to be a little detached to make the right decisions. How much of going after A-Rod had to do with emotionally sticking it to Boston, as opposed to just making the right personnel move for the team? So coming out and saying that the team was a "sad failure" so soon smacks of emotion, not sound business thinking. I haven't heard about all the bad managerial decisions Torre made, so why is his job supposdly in jeopardy?

[Dan_ref]

Cory Lidle dead in aircrash

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/10/11/plane.crash/index.html