The magic number

[M&M Guy]

Originally Posted by Brad

I defy you to call a 10-second violation with 26 left on the shot clock because "your count" was at 10. A good dose of common sense goes a long way on this one.

The shot clock is 35 seconds - that is, 35.0. Thus, when the clock starts it immediately goes to 34 and remains on 34 for the entire duration of 34.9-34.0.

Thus, when the clock shows 25 seconds it could be anywhere from 25.0-25.9. Only in the case of the clock being exactly at 25.0 would there technically be a shot clock violation.

Thus, 9 times out of 10 (25.9 through 25.1) there has NOT been a violation (you could actually argue 99 out of 100 if you wanted to include hundreths - but let's keep it simple). So you have a 10% chance that the 25 showing on the clock is exactly 10 seconds and a violation has occurred.

Thus, there is a 90% chance that there has not been a violation.

I'd go all-in with those odds.

I'll call. What'ya got?

I guess the point I was trying to make with my statement you quoted, was the fact that my count does matter, and it may not agree with the shot clock and/or game clock. I guess my feelings come from working mostly JUCO and D3, where the tables aren't necessarily the greatest. In fact, there was one D3 game last year where our crew had to stop play and correct either the shot clock or game clock nine different times during the course of the game. So I have learned to not fully trust clocks and their operators. What if the table is busy eating popcorn and doesn't start the shot clock right away, like say, for 2 sec.? If you have your count, you could very well be at 10 on your count, while the shot clock could show 26 or 27. Your explanation to the coach is simple - apparently the clock didn't start right away, but I had definite knowledge from my count.

Let's look at a HS situation: say there's 12 sec. left in the quarter, and A has the ball for a throw-in in their back court. The throw-in gets tipped by B, the clock starts, A finally tracks the ball down and starts slowly up court, and the horn goes off while A is still in the back court. Obviously B's coach will argue there was a violation because 12 sec. ran off the clock while A was in the backcourt, so they should get the ball with 2 sec. put back on the clock. But you know your count was only at 9, because the count didn't start until A had posession, not when the clock started 3 seconds earlier.

I've always felt it's dangerous to rely on the clock for your counts, both because operators can be unreliable, and different rule sets determine different starting points on game clocks, shot clocks, and counts. Maybe at the higher levels, the clock operators are more accurate and reliable, and you can use them as a reference. But I'm not going to rely upon the clock as the sole basis for making my call.

Also, as I mentioned earlier, my experience with shot clocks is that the horn goes off the moment it hits 0, and doesn't change to 34 (or, in my case, to 29) until a second after it's turned on. So, even though it says 35, it could be 34.9, 34.5, or 34.1. It changes to 34 at 34.0. So 10 seconds has elapsed when it shows 25 (or in NCAAW, 20). That's different than game clocks that don't show 10th's, because the clock immediately clicks down to the next number when it's turned on, and shows 0 for a full second before the horn goes off.