1 in 5 wrong? Really?

[BSUmp16]

Originally Posted by mbyron

What a crock! I guess I have three choices now: "safe!" "out!" or "too close to call!"

Doh!!! There are three things an umpire should do before making a call - Pause.... Read... React. I think you skipped the second stage.

I NEVER said there are three choices. There are, and always have been, two choices to make on a play - Safe and Out. As I said, as the umpire you have to make one of those two choices.

Having said THAT, saying that there are no 'ties" in baseball is simply not true. If, on instant slo-mo replay it cannot be determined whether the ball arrived before the runner (or vice versa) then that is, for all practical purposes, a "tie - or "too close to call" (which according to this study happens about once every 12-14 games). Nevertheless you, as an umpire HAVE TO MAKE THE CALL - Safe or Out. How you, as an umpire, go about consistently resolving that decision - to arrive at the safe or out call, is up to you. But the fact remains, as this study proves, there are going to be situations where it is impossible for you tell tell definitively whether the ball or the runner arrived first, because it's "too close to call".

[mbyron]

Originally Posted by BSUmp16

Doh!!!
Nevertheless you, as an umpire HAVE TO MAKE THE CALL - Safe or Out. How you, as an umpire, go about consistently resolving that decision - to arrive at the safe or out call, is up to you.

BS. Safe and out are defined by rule. Runner beats ball = safe; runner doesn't beat ball = out.

Please explain where "ties" and your idea of creative, arbitrary, subjective call-making enter the rules.

[UmpJM]

Originally Posted by BSUmp16

Doh!!! There are three things an umpire should do before making a call - Pause.... Read... React. I think you skipped the second stage.

BSUmp16,

1. "Pause...Read...React..." has nothing to do with the actual making of a call.

It is the technique taught to decide on the proper movement (and eventual positioning) when a ball is batted into play.

2. While I would grant that it is theoretically possible for two events to occur simultaneously at two different points in space (i.e., a "tie") both Einstein and Hegel argue, rather persuasively, that it is impossible for a human being to accurately perceive that happened. Einstein from a physics perspective, Hegel from a limits of human perception perspective; they are both a lot smarter than you or I, and I believe them.

3. This "study" proves nothing other than the authors don't know jack about statistics, studies, or responsible journalism.

However, I wholeheartedly agree with your essential point that it is the umpire's responsibility to MAKE THE DAMN CALL!

JM

[mbyron]

Originally Posted by UmpJM (nee CoachJM)

2. While I would grant that it is theoretically possible for two events to occur simultaneously at two different points in space (i.e., a "tie") both Einstein and Hegel argue, rather persuasively, that it is impossible for a human being to accurately perceive that happened. Einstein from a physics perspective, Hegel from a limits of human perception perspective; they are both a lot smarter than you or I, and I believe them.

That's awfully highbrow for an umpire site, John. Next we'll have some yahoo debating the Copenhagen interpretation on here!

[Tim C]

While not the final word:

The NTSB and the NBA did studies that document that the human mind cannot comprehend activites that occur within .03th of a second of each other.

So when a call is "to close to call" we settle for a subconscious process that makes us "believe" we are correct.

I agree with JM (but I always do).

T

[BSUmp16]

I agree with Tim C (who agrees with JM):

"The NTSB and the NBA did studies that document that the human mind cannot comprehend activites that occur within .03th of a second of each other."

The notion of a "tie" comes when the human brain (which, despite what some coaches will tell you includes the umpire's brain) cannot physiologically determine which event occured first and which came second.

While I agree that the statistics used in the report are all goofed up, the underlying data shows that on average there are 1.3 calls per game that are too close for the human brain to distinguish which event came first (runner at bag) and which came second (ball at bag). Of those 1.3 plays 14% are found to be too close for determination EVEN USING SLOW MOTION REPLAY. Those plays are what I (and I think most people) would call "ties". Based on the data, those plays will occur, on average, once every 6 games! That's a lot of "too close to call" plays over a season, so its not just theoretical.

There are no tie CALLS in baseball; there are tie PLAYS. Simply repeating the old "There are no ties in Baseball" does nothing to address the real issue.

And I am not being "creative, arbitrary, or subjective". I'm applying OBR Rule 6.05(j) (applicable to runners going into first base) which states: “A batter is out when - after a third strike or after he hits a fair ball, he or first base is tagged BEFORE he touches first base.” BY RULE, ties (i.e., those plays that the human brain cannot make a determination as to which event happened first) go to the runner.

You may disagree, but simply saying "BS" is not really a legitimate response.

P.S. My "Pause... Read... React." comment was meant metaphorically - a reference to the fact that MByron had not apparently "read" my comment before he "reacted" to it.

[LMan]

There are no ties in baseball.

[MD Longhorn]

Originally Posted by LMan

There are no ties in baseball.

Not since Connie Mack wore one, at least.