1 in 5 wrong? Really?

[MrUmpire]

God, how I hate the way the media uses statistics. Remember what they are talking about is 20% of the 1.3 close calls per game, not 20% of all calls. This will, in reality, equate to less than 5% of total calls. Right where the figure has been estimated for years.

This data will, no doubt, be misinterpreted by fans, managers, coaches and talking heads.

[MD Longhorn]

Originally Posted by MrUmpire

God, how I hate the way the media uses statistics. Remember what they are talking about is 20% of the 1.3 close calls per game, not 20% of all calls. This will, in reality, equate to less than 5% of total calls. Right where the figure has been estimated for years.

This data will, no doubt, be misinterpreted by fans, managers, coaches and talking heads.

Your math is off. WAY off. Consider a normal game - 54 outs, let's say 15 strikeouts - 39 non-K outs. That's at least 39 total calls (yeah, some are easy ... but see below). Add in all the safe plays where there was a play (either on a close catch or a close play at a base), etc - let's call it 50 although it's probably more like 70.

20% of 1.3 calls a game is .26 calls a game. Out of 50, this is not 5%ish - it's 0.5%. Meaning that out of 1000 calls, they miss 5, and 2 more are undeterminable even via replay.

The other fallacy of the logic is removing "non-close" plays or obvious plays. You can't judge any sort of percentage by arbitrarily effing with the denominator. This is as dumb as saying, "of all the calls that were either wrong or too close to call, the umpire missed SIXTY PERCENT of them."

Oh, and I can't wait for football, where there are 100's of decisions made by the 5-7 officials on EVERY PLAY. What is going to count as a close play? A non-hold that wasn't called? A NZ enfraction, where there was one? This one is going to be impossible to judge. And basketball even worse.

[MrUmpire]

Originally Posted by mbcrowder

Your math is off. WAY off... this is not 5%ish - it's 0.5%.

I believe I said LESS than 5%. I believe .5% is LESS than 5%.

I didn't have the time to spend much time on this this morning. I have a life. Nevertheless, I was correct in my spur of the moment statement.

[briancurtin]

1/5 seems ridiculous, but this year has been really bad...

[Kevin Finnerty]

Originally Posted by MrUmpire

I believe I said LESS than 5%. I believe .5% is LESS than 5%.

I didn't have the time to spend much time on this this morning. I have a life. Nevertheless, I was correct in my spur of the moment statement.

WOW!



Thanks for one of the biggest laughs you've ever given us!

[PeteBooth]

[QUOTE]

Originally Posted by mbcrowder

This season in Major League Baseball has seemingly brought a new umpiring controversy every week, with Jim Joyce's blown call in the Armando Galarraga near-perfect game standing out.

MLB should invest in THEIR product. Umpires are part of THEIR product. MLB should take control of the umpiring.

Presently, you are NOT getting the best of the best because one has to have certian life-style to TRY and make it to the BIGS. You earn "peanuts" unless you are fortunate enough to make it to the BIGS. How many individuals even if they wanted to can afford to "go down that path"

If MLB a Billion dollar industry took over control of the umpiring perhaps we would see a better product on the field. Presently there is little movement at the major League level.

Also, unlike basketball / football there are many "coin-flip" calls in baseball. Also, the myth a tie goes to the runner is another one. What will replay accomplish for these? How many angles will be used?

Therefore, IMO before MLB goes to a full fledged replay system, try taking a more serious role in umpire development and then see what happens.

Pete Booth

[NJump]

Nothing is "too close to call". There is a system in place---umpires. "too close to overturn" might have been a better term. Reread Pete Booth's reply and digest it. MLB is seriously delinquent in this area. Billions in income and shortchanging the customers. Kinda like BP saving a few bucks on the oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico.

[ODJ]

Of the missed calls I've seen from the report, the umpires were in poor positions.
Are all of the missed calls posted?