What is going to happen to MiLB now?

[MrB]

I think it is very apparent what Windy thinks is going to happen at this point in the game, but what do some of the rest of you think? I am not talking about should a person work or not, but how do you see the rest of the season playing out?

I think more ex-pro guys and DI guys will come out and work. Many I have talked to say that they have given the union a chance and the writing is on the wall. We all know that not all will work, but it seems like a large number will come out at or around Memorial Day weekend.

A few of the leagues have even asked some guys to consider traveling as crews.

[JRutledge]

Each umpire is going to have to make a personal decision and they might suffer the consequences for their actions. Of course there will be some umpires that come out, but I do not think that is going to hurt the union. First of all there has to be a system to train, evaluate and hopefully progress these umpires to the next level. If management and the union do not come to some agreement, then who are going to be the umpires that will years down the road replace the Major League Umpires? The issue is never been from my point of view the money or the specifics of the contract. The issue is there going to be a system that will encourage umpires to work for a realistic future in pro umpiring. I made more money working a single JUCO game then these guys get for working a 9 inning pro game. I do not see guys giving up the opportunity to work D1 to become a full time umpire. Also in many cases D1 umpires are older, make more money in their real jobs than they could umpiring a few games, so I do not see these guys as a whole crossing over and working MiLB ball. Now all of this is speculation and we will not see who won or lost until these issues is resolved either way.

Peace

[nickrego]

It will hurt the union.

MiLB will simply fire all the current umpires, and start over.

What's the union going to do about it ?

They can either be part of the re-build, or not. MiLB won't care. They will end up with a system, no matter what.

I talked to a striking MiLB guy on Monday night. He is pretty sure they will all be fired in the next 6 weeks. MiLB will finish the season with scabs, and have a new system in place by next season.

If you don't think MiLB has been prepared for this, your not using your noodle.

[JRutledge]

Originally Posted by nickrego

It will hurt the union.

MiLB will simply fire all the current umpires, and start over.

What's the union going to do about it ?

They can either be part of the re-build, or not. MiLB won't care. They will end up with a system, no matter what.

I talked to a striking MiLB guy on Monday night. He is pretty sure they will all be fired in the next 6 weeks. MiLB will finish the season with scabs, and have a new system in place by next season.

If you don't think MiLB has been prepared for this, your not using your noodle.

Just because the MiLB is prepared, does not mean this is the best decision. If they fire everyone, who is going to replace trained umpires? There was a game where 3 fights in one game and no one was ejected. They are going to have to train umpires to what pro ball is about. I hope their plan is a good one.

Peace

[Justme]

Originally Posted by MrB

I think it is very apparent what Windy thinks is going to happen at this point in the game, but what do some of the rest of you think? I am not talking about should a person work or not, but how do you see the rest of the season playing out?

I think more ex-pro guys and DI guys will come out and work. Many I have talked to say that they have given the union a chance and the writing is on the wall. We all know that not all will work, but it seems like a large number will come out at or around Memorial Day weekend.

A few of the leagues have even asked some guys to consider traveling as crews.

I believed from the very beginning that the strike was doomed because:
(1) there was enough talent in the other umpire ranks to fill in for the MiLB umpires.
(2) as the strike continued the replacement umpires would become more able to fill in for the strikers.
(4) supply and demand was against the strikers. Why pay these 220 guys more money when there are hundreds of others waiting to take their place?
(5) no one outside of the union really cared that much about their cause.

Agree with the strikers or not the facts are the facts....MiLB/MLB will:
(1) survive just fine without the striking umpires
(2) probably restructure their entire umpire training/selection program possibly causing the demise of the current union.

[BigUmp56]

Originally Posted by nickrego

It will hurt the union.

MiLB will simply fire all the current umpires, and start over.

What's the union going to do about it ?

They can either be part of the re-build, or not. MiLB won't care. They will end up with a system, no matter what.

I talked to a striking MiLB guy on Monday night. He is pretty sure they will all be fired in the next 6 weeks. MiLB will finish the season with scabs, and have a new system in place by next season.

If you don't think MiLB has been prepared for this, your not using your noodle.

Nick:

Unless the AMLU is decertified as a recognized union, by law the NLRB will not allow the members to be fired . Management can opt to no longer bargain with the AMLU, but they cannot fire anyone.


Tim.

[WhatWuzThatBlue]

Originally Posted by J.Rutledge

Each umpire is going to have to make a personal decision and they might suffer the consequences for their actions. Of course there will be some umpires that come out, but I do not think that is going to hurt the union. First of all there has to be a system to train, evaluate and hopefully progress these umpires to the next level. If management and the union do not come to some agreement, then who are going to be the umpires that will years down the road replace the Major League Umpires?

Please don't write about things you clearly don't know much about.

The umpire's union is a recent occurence - MiLB and MLB did just fine for a long time without the union. If AMLU disappears, the PBUC system will still be in place and the umpires will still receive training and promotion. Candidates will still have to attend professional school and be evaluated before signing on. They just won't have to pay dues and be embarrassed by a joker at the helm.

My best guess is that the membership will become disheartened soon and start talking about forming a new alliance. If this hasn't happened already, , it will be the death of AMLU. Some of the old guard will retire or be pushed out. Others will try to regain their dream and get back out on the field. Some of the replacements will be encouraged to enter the system and others will be hired on as local support crew. MiLB will make some small concessions but not what the union has bargained for all along. In the end, there will be former AMLU guys out there doing the job and that is where they should have been all along.

[JRutledge]

Originally Posted by WhatWuzThatBlue

Please don't write about things you clearly don't know much about.

Windbag, some of us actually talk to umpires that work Minor League Ball. When you get the balls to put your actual name behind your words, then talk to me then about what I know or do not know.

Peace

[Sal Giaco]

Tim,
The Minor League system will start over and all of the leagues from Rookie to AA will be turned over to Regional Assignors throughout the country. They will work with the League Presidents to provide umpires as independent contractors (similar to the assignments we get for college baseball).

The AMLU will eventually dissolve and the guys will come back individually, working games at all levels (except AAA) according to what's available around where you live. They will have to go through their regional assignor to get games but I'm sure they will get first crack at whatever they want since they are the most experienced/qualified to work those games. The big jump will probably be from A/AA to AAA, or when you go from being an independent contractor working within a certain geographical area to being a full time AAA umpire with an outside chance at working in the bigs.

As for AAA, I think that will be handled under the MLB umbrella since they are trying to develop them to eventually become big league umpires. All the current AAA umpires will be offered their jobs back, however, at MiLB terms, not AMLU terms. Most of them will probably take it since they are so close to the bigs - they'd be dumb not to come back.

This is just my opinion - I have no inside info but it seems like this is the most logical solution since MiLB just doesn't want to spend the money on umpring. Moreover, with the next five slots in the bigs are going to Hallion, Davidson, Hickox and then probably Barksdale, Guccione and/or Drake, there just isn't enough room for movement in the next 5 - 10 yrs.

[BigUmp56]

Sal:

If the advancement potential is going to be limited to 5 years or more, do you think that MiLB will start cleaning house in one or two years to bring other umpires up to AAA?


Tim.

[Sal Giaco]

Originally Posted by BigUmp56

Sal:

If the advancement potential is going to be limited to 5 years or more, do you think that MiLB will start cleaning house in one or two years to bring other umpires up to AAA?


Tim.

I don't know what's going to happen with that. There's still a possiblity that AAA will be handled by Regional Assignors just like the other leagues. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I wonder how this will effect the umpiring schools - maybe MiLB will require that anyone who works MiLB must have attended one of the schools. I guess there just won't be that competition to see who gets a job since once you complete the course, you will have to try and get games as an independent contractor through the Regional Assignors. Again, this is all speculation - I'm just giving my opinion on how this whole thing will end up.

[SAump]

PBUC will have to find umpires that want to work one 9 inning game for $70 a day, sleep in a lousy hotel, travel from ballpark to ballpark, eat crappy weiners, and miss HOME for 5 months a year with very little to do each day. It must be aweful boring working 3 hours a day so far away from anyone who means anything. I guess playing cards with the crew {until the penny and nickel pots wipes one out}, watching soap operas in a quaint hotel room, and getting toiletries or a refreshment at the local stop-n-shop fill up a LONG day of BORDEM.

That same umpire can find two 7 inning games at a local baseball league for $100 and minutes from HOME. Oh did I mention that he can work for a decent living each day, rather than driving across the state on 25 cents a mile and $20 a day. He can maintain a relationship with people who share the same household and establish a daily routine in a familiar setting. He can actually learn to enjoy his life, seek relationships, employment or education opportunities. Hell, spend a summer day on the lake fishing. It sure sounds a lot better than staring at the beautiful Appalachian Mountains all day.

[Sal Giaco]

Originally Posted by SAump

PBUC will have to find umpires that want to work one 9 inning game for $70 a day, sleep in a lousy hotel, travel from ballpark to ballpark, eat crappy weiners, and miss HOME for 5 months a year with very little to do each day. It must be aweful boring working 3 hours a day so far away from anyone who means anything. I guess playing cards with the crew {until the penny and nickel pots wipes one out}, watching soap operas in a quaint hotel room, and getting toiletries or a refreshment at the local stop-n-shop fill up a LONG day of BORDEM.

That same umpire can find two 7 inning games at a local baseball league for $100 and minutes from HOME. Oh did I mention that he can work for a decent living each day, rather than driving across the state on 25 cents a mile and $20 a day. He can maintain a relationship with people who share the same household and establish a daily routine in a familiar setting. He can actually learn to enjoy his life, seek relationships, employment or education opportunities. Hell, spend a summer day on the lake fishing. It sure sounds a lot better than staring at the beautiful Appalachian Mountains all day.

SAUmp,

You hit is right on the nail. The current system just doesn't work anymore. The AMLU knows it and PBUC knows it. MiLB has been getting away with murder the last 10 years - basically having high quality officiating and paying next to nothing for it.

Now that it's time to annie up, they just don't feel that umpiring is worth any more of an investment. After all, why put more money into something that doesn't generate more revenue for the owners. Remember, MiLB is all about filling stadiums and the quality of umpiring really doesn't have anything to do with putting fans in the seats.

With that said, if the AMLU doesn't want to supply the umpires, then they will "outsource" the work. That's where the Regional Assignors come in - they will negotiate a game fee with the League Presidents just like the NCAA Umpire Supervisors negotiate with the indivual Conferences. The current MiLB umpires will now become individual contractors just like the rest of us. They can move back home and have real jobs and umpire as an advocation rather than a career.

MiLB will probably pay more money per game to individual contractors - perhaps $100 for A, $125 for AA and $150 per game at AAA but will save money in the end becuase they won't have "employee" costs, ie. insurance. In turn, umpires will get to have their own lives back and don't have to be away from family and eat cold hot dogs for six months of the year anymore. All in all, this will work out best for everyone involved.

Again, this is just my opinion - none of this is factual but rather just speculation.

[JIGGY]

QUOTE=WhatWuzThatBlue "If AMLU disappears, the PBUC system will still be in place and the umpires will still receive training and promotion. Candidates will still have to attend professional school and be evaluated before signing on."

WOW, THIS MAY BE THE ONLY INTELLIGENT INSIGHT ON THE ISSUE YOU HAVE EVER HAD!
Let me address these issues, and specifically JUSTME's list:


Gentlemen, lets be honest with ourselves here:

First of all lets understand that the job the Scabs are doing now, is not the same job as the AMLU umpires do season after season. An AMLU umpire doesn't get to hide his identity, refuse the press, or have MiLB threatening doom and gloom to those players and managers who argue on the field or speak badly about the umpires off of it. An AMLU umpire doesn't get to work when it is convenient for him, in the same park night after night, in his home town where he gets to go home to his family at night. The AMLU umpire makes less money per game, and has to try to eat on $20-$25 per day. His job is in jeopardy every time he steps onto the field, because unlike the Scab umpire who can make glaring mistakes in rules applications, basic mechanics, or handling on field situations on a nightly basis without any fear of being released (because MiLB is going to and has said the scabs are doing fine regardless, not to mention if they boot the Scabs, who would work then?) An AMLU umpire is a professional who is held accountable for his mistakes and is personally responsible for not making such mistakes; if AMLU umpires made many of the same mistakes that are being made on Minor League fields this season with great frequency, they would be out of jobs (I'm not saying there aren't mistakes made by AMLU umpires, just that they are held accountable, the scabs aren't).

Acknowledging that fact, one would logically ask the question:

If the Scabs aren't able to hit the mark in the situation they are in now, a "kinder-care" version of the real job, what makes anyone think they would be able to do the job for real?

The simple fact is, there aren't 220 "other" guys out there right now who could step in and do the job as well as the AMLU umpires. There may be 220 guys who could be trained to reach that level, but that is a developmental process and one that would be impossible without significantly compromising the quality of umpiring overall in the Minor Leagues for many seasons to come. There aren't 220 Rookie and Short A slots open any season, and putting an umpire in over his head doesn't make him any better at it- just look at the scabs who are working now! They have been working all season and still aren't even close to being "up to the level of the game". While you may improve on what you are doing with experience, umpires do not learn what to do by just going out on a field night after night. The statement that "as the strike continued the replacement umpires would become more able to fill in for the strikers" is asinine at best and has clearly been proven wrong.

There also seems to be a misunderstanding as to the roles of PBUC and the AMLU. The AMLU is a union charged with representing the umpires as a group of workers. To make statements like "(MiLB will)...probably restructure their entire umpire training/selection program possibly causing the demise of the current union." makes no sense whatsoever. One doesn't really have anything to do with the other. PBUC is a MiLB program, not an AMLU one, and as such PBUC on MiLB's direction has set the standards for hiring, training, developing, and releasing Minor League umpires, not the AMLU. Why would MiLB scrap their own program which they created and continue to run? This argument implies that MiLB will simply say "let's lower our expectations of Minor League Umpires by scrapping PBUC and letting local High School and College guys to take over." That is not even a remote possibility, and a really ridiculous speculation at best.

For those of you who insist on entertaining the idea that the AMLU will be "broken", that is your uninformed opinion. But to think that this labor dispute will somehow result in a change in how Minor League Umpires are hired,trained, developed, and released, or what level they are expected to perform at is just plain ignorant and one would be a fool to try to convince others of this nonsense. (hint- the group of guys who suddenly think that at 45 years old, 15lbs overweight, and without umpire school training that they will be given "a shot" because of the strike are very very sadly not in touch with reality.)

[Sal Giaco]

Originally Posted by JIGGY

Why would MiLB scrap their own program which they created and continue to run? This argument implies that MiLB will simply say "let's lower our expectations of Minor League Umpires by scrapping PBUC and letting local High School and College guys to take over." That is not even a remote possibility, and a really ridiculous speculation at best.

...But to think that this labor dispute will somehow result in a change in how Minor League Umpires are hired,trained, developed, and released, or what level they are expected to perform at is just plain ignorant

Jiggy,
When it comes down to it, it's all about the almighty dollar. Umpires are an expense, not an investment to MiLB. Why should they dump any more money than they have to - afterall, they are not the ones that reap the benefits of umpire development.

I think they have made it pretty clear as to where umpires are on the priority list (MiLB said they have the money but don't want to spend it on umpiring). I think they crunched the numbers and figured out that they could cut down on expenses by busting the union and then rehiring them as independent contractors. They can also save money by getting rid of PBUC and letting MLB worry about ultimately developing umpires for the big leagues.

Will the quality of officiating suffer by "outsourcing" the umpiring in MiLB? Absolutely. But you know what... they probably don't care as long as they're saving money, not adversely effecting the game and ofcourse, not losing any fans in the seats.