[mbyron]

I think it's likely that the current work situation with MiLB umpires - or similar negotiations in the next few years - will end the current apprenticeship system.

The owners see just another union demanding higher wages and - worst of all - benefits. Inflation in healthcare benefits is running over 20% per year. Companies are dying for ways to drop benefits, pensions, etc. As the workforce ages, these legacy costs kill the bottom line.

So to avoid these costs, what do companies do? Outsource. For pro umpiring, that means hiring independent contractors through an assignor. It would start to look like high school, college, and semi-pro ball in many parts of the country. Flat fee payments, no benefits, no per diem, no travel, etc..

MLB umpires would be culled from the highest levels and would continue to run much as they do now. There's too much at stake in the bigs to have independent contractors there. But officiating at the minor league level will be very different.

And, as a consequence, PBUC and the schools will die quietly and with little fanfare.

I'm not saying that this is how it should be or that I would welcome these developments. I think that when you run a sport as if it were an entertainment business, and when conditions are what they are today in the business world, then certain business decisions begin to look like imperatives.