To ref, or not to ref

[Adam]

Actually, the question is more accurately phrased, "to pay dues this year, or not to pay dues this year."
I'm up against the deadlines, but have been diagnosed with a meniscus tear that I hope is minor. I'll be starting PT in a couple weeks, hoping the problem can be solved without surgery.
My question, for those who have been there or know someone well who has been there; are the odds good that I'll be recovered in time for the season? Worst case scenario, by January?