espn tournament challenge

[mbyron]

More than most seasons, this tourney has been up for grabs. The conventional wisdom has never been more wrong. Just ask Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse...and maybe Duke?

[Rich]

I won 21 in the first round. I had 10 of 16 in the second round. Then got 5 of 8 of the Elite Eight right. So far I have 1 Final Four team (I picked West Virginia). Just a horrible freaking year, right?

I'm in 6th place here. More importantly, I'm solidly in the money for the only pool where I paid actual money. If Duke doesn't win the National Championship, I'll probably stay close to there, unless a lot of people picked West Virginia.

Weird, weird year. 3 number 1 seeds out and there's a 5 in the Final Four and today either a 5 or a 6 will get in. I could see Baylor knocking off Duke, too, which would put a 3 in.

[Raymond]

What tournament challenge?

[Nevadaref]

By ESPN.com Staff

Here are some key Tournament Challenge stats on the Final Four.

1. Out of 4.78 million brackets on ESPN.com, 200 successfully picked the correct Final Four.

2. 304,924 brackets (6.4%) picked Duke to win it all.
224,417 brackets (4.7%) picked West Virginia to win it all.
28,379 brackets (0.59%) picked Michigan State to win it all.
4,568 brackets (0.1%) picked Butler to win it all.

3. 10,212 brackets picked a Duke/MSU championship game.
6,951 brackets picked a WVU/MSU championship game.
1,430 brackets picked a Duke/Butler championship game.
1,664 brackets picked a WVU/Butler championship game.

[just another ref]

Originally Posted by Nevadaref

Here are some key Tournament Challenge stats on the Final Four.

1. Out of 4.78 million brackets on ESPN.com, 200 successfully picked the correct Final Four.

Here's another stat. In our happy little group, nobody got 3 out of the 4.

[Rich]

Originally Posted by just another ref

Here's another stat. In our happy little group, nobody got 3 out of the 4.

Which is why I'm 4th. Still astounded, BTW.

I mean, look at this without any context:

21/32 first round
10/16 second round
5/8 Elite Eight
2/4 Final Four

Frankly, that's horrible. And I'm at the 98.4 percentile on ESPN. Amazing.

My best result now is Duke beating W.Va. and then losing in the final to either Butler or Michigan State. I'm guessing that would probably leave me right about where I sit now.

[Nevadaref]

I really dislike the scoring system which ESPN uses.

It over weights the picks at the end imo.

I would propose the following method of scoring. Each correct pick is worth their seed # in points multiplied by the round # of the tournament game.

So picking a #1 seed to win in the first round would be worth: 1 x 1 = 1 point.

However, selecting a #5 seed such as Butler or Michigan State this year to win their regional final and advance to the Final Four would be worth: 5 x 4 = 20 points.

The St. Mary's upset of Villanova would have been worth the same amount: 10 x 2 = 20 points, but Cornell over Wisconsin would have netted the selector 24 points.

In considering if this system awards about the right amount of points think about how likely it is for a #1, #2, or #3 seed to win the title versus how likely it is that a #10 seed makes it to the Sweet 16 or a #7 seed reaches the Elite 8. What do think would be the more difficult prediction to make correctly and thus should be worth more points?

Perhaps people could go through their brackets and post their score under the Nevada System.
Mine would be:
1st round: 97
2nd round: 58
3rd round: 18
4th round and beyond: zero
Total: 173