Probably about the same as Big Brown finishing last on Saturday.

Well, that would be because he has lied.

I dont think there is a league office organized conspiracy to decide games but it is possible that specific reffs have clear cut agendas towards certain teams and players and call that way. This leads me to a few pointed questions about how each game is officiated:

1) How hard will the reffs allow the defensive team to push the offensive team away from the basket when they step out on screen and roll? With double teams on the ball and step outs on screen and roll a defense can literally push the offense all the way to halfcourt. Typically a reff can get caught up in the home crowd and allow the home team to be much more aggressive and physical pushing the ball away from the basket. This causes teams to become jump shooters like the Lakers in Game 2 and the Celtics in Game 3 and it also causes teams to become frantic as the shot clock runs down to zero.

2) How much will the NBE Reffs allow using your hands and pushing into the defense on rebounds? In Boston allowing PJ Brown and Powe to push into Odom and Gasol under the basket led to a lot of Celtics offensive rebounds and loose balls. This lead to Powe scoring 21pts in Game 2. Allowing Gasol and Odom to push Garnett and Perkins in Game 3 lead to the best game of the series inside for the Lakers.

3) How much contact will the NBE reffs allow the slashers to get through traffic, take contact and get to the FT line at home? For Game 3 I had the Kobe over/under on FT Attempts at 22 (he shot 18) and I said take the over. If Kobe and Phil hadnt had the terrible brain cramp that had Odom, Fisher and Vujacich touch the ball on three consecutive trips in the final 2:30 mins with Kobe frozen out, Kobe would have attacked the basket, got 6 FTs and I would have won the bet.

4) What mystery calls will affect the game? Joey Crawford's charge call (and 5th foul) in Game 3 on Pierce was one of those mystery calls. The two push fouls on Kobe through the screeners in Boston in Game 2 were mystery calls. Sometimes it seems like the NBE reffs call that kind of stuff to say "hey look at me, I run this show" but other times it seems much more ominous than that.

5) IMO what the League cares about with their TV partners is not city/media market size. They care that the series goes to 6 games so both teams have an equal number of home games, that ABC/ESPN gets their 4 guaranteed games plus two more to make additional ad revenue, that the 6 game series means it is competitive, and they want the stars to finish the game on the court.

This is easily attainable by a NBE reff crew with the agenda to call the game like I described in 1-4. All the reffs and the league want is for the home team stars to have a chance to lead their team to the win. It is up to the players to actually decide the game. This gives the league, the Reffs and Stern plausible deniability when it comes to the "conspiracy." The players ultimately decide the outcome.

The 2002 Lakers/Kings series that Donaghy was talking about going to 6 and then 7 games was in a renegotiation year (ABC signed in January 2002) when NBC dropped the NBE and ABC picked it up. The 2002 Western Conference Final was one of the highest rated NBE Playoff series in history. Was that series happening at that time a coincidence? Nobody knows for sure, but I dont think so. The new deal with ABC was already signed so the higher ratings didnt help close the deal but it certainly didnt hurt ABC's ability to negotiate their 2003 Season commercial schedule prices with sponsors. ABC signed the NBE for $400 million per season in a deal that NBC's Dick Ebersol said was a losing contract.