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That's exactly what's being reported, that he fixed games. If you make calls to affect the number of points scored in a game, then from a gambling aspect, you have FIXED the game. How can you say there's no mention? |
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Peace |
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I was also under the impression it was for fixing games, point spreads, whatever. That was what most of the stories focused on initially. But that isn't what is being reported now. Maybe the gambling is all Stern knows for sure now, and that is all he needs to get Donaghy to resign. Maybe there is more behind the scenes, but it is only speculation. |
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Peace |
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Take a look at the article where sports gambler R.J. Bell put together some numbers on his games and the outcomes. In the two years prior to the alleged activity, TD's games beat the over 44% of the time. In the two years during the activity, his games surpassed the over 57%. The odds of that happening are 1000 to 1. There were 12 straight TD games where their was so much big money bet just before the game that the points pushed 1.5 points prior to the tip. In 10 of those 12 games, if you had bet with the money, you would had won. That's an 80% winning percentage, which is next to impossible. Sorry but I don't buy that the fix wasn't in. |
Q: To the best of your understanding, do you really feel that it's possible to determine if a referee is actually cheating, making calls that aren't real?
Stern: That's a really good question. It's very hard, but we're going to give it our best shot. There are things that you have been speculating about in the media in the last few days about the number of calls, the disparity of calls and the like. But it's hard, but we're going to do it and we'll be able to make the judgment at that time. It would not surprise me if it proves to be difficult, but I just want to say one thing here. If you bet on a game, you lose the benefit of the doubt. So I'm not going to stand here and say to you, it didn't happen, because that would impair the credibility that I think the NBA deserves for its efforts, and that's why we don't allow betting on games because as our brochure that we give to the referees says, that if you bet, then people will assume that the game is being subjected to the possibility that it would be decided by other than on its merits, and I think that's a fair point. And I will make no defense, neat criminal distinction between betting on games here and something worse. You lose the benefit of the doubt when you do it. |
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Evaluating an official's performance for a single game is a very different activity than mining evaluation and other related data for evidence of fraud or cheating. If you're not focused on the latter, I don't see where there is any reasonable expectation that you would discover it, not if it's subtle. To do so would indeed require something new. Probably an army of statistics nerds locked in a storage closet somewhere doing round-the-clock analyses on mountains of data about call selection, long term trends, what the odds were, what the outcome was, etc. In theory it should be possible to determine some kind of baseline profile for each official then spot deviations from it. Who knows, they may even be able to create the statistical equivalent of QuesTec. And I'm sure Stern would love nothing more than to have irrefutable statistical evidence that the conspiracy theorists are all wrong. Well, except maybe to have it all printed in a hefty spread sheet he can roll up and beat the hell out of Mark Cuban with the next time he goes off :D |
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Honestly, if I were in Sterns position...as soon as the whirlwind settles a bit and more details come out, I would establish a committee made up of owners and former officials to review and overhaul the officials evaluation program, to include something to detect suspect activity/trends, and make Cuban the chairman. |
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Whatinthehell do <b>owners</b> know about officiating? And make Cuban the chairman? Helluva idea. I'm sure that his Mavs would just love the officiating after he got done with it. The other teams in the league? Not so much methinks. All Cuban cares about is whether his team is gonna get their fair share of the calls that he thinks that they deserve, which is about 85% of 'em. |
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First, like it or not, the OWNERS are, or should be, the ones that dictate how things are handled in a professional league. If by no other way, than by employing a commissioner. Sterns may be powerful, but you can bet your last dollar that if he started doing things the owners didn't like they would get things changed. Second, do you really think any official in the NBA is going to do anything that may even be remotely perceived as bias? My bet is next year you will see a marked difference in how things are called. They are not going to want to be viewed as "on the take". I am not saying any others are, but it is human nature to act differently when a peer is caught up in something like this...and even though a lot here don't think they are, NBA officials are human. Lastly, If ANY owner of any team in any league is only concerned with his team then that owner is a short sighted business idiot. A team benefits when the league as a whole does well. Cuban may be a lot of things...but short sighted business idiot is not one of them. |
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NBA officials make 7-10 mistakes a game. They don't alert the fans to these mistakes, but teams are told that a mistake was made. If you watch a game and observe a no-call that you think should have been called, don't assume that's the way the NBA wants it called. It's possible that the ref didn't see it, or saw it and had a brain fart. These guys are the best, but they are not perfect. |
Screw the NBA. My faith in the integrity of the gambling industry has been shaken to the core. I don't even know if I can bet on boxing now.
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