Bench player intereferes

[Dan_ref]

Originally posted by A Pennsylvania Coach

What percentage of the time will a 70% free throw shooter make 3 of 3 FTAs in an end-game situation?

I don't know. In real life you don't give enough information (there are too many variables) - how sure am I that the 70% is an accurate and valid measure that takes into account all possible variables - did the shooter just break the thumb on his shooting hand, what's his percentage under pressure vs no-pressure, is his girl friend in the stands, is he worried about failing history or that zit on his nose, what's his percentage when tired vs when rested, etc). Certainly your experience bears this out (3 out of 3 made every time you've seen it).

What you are missing is the following question:

"How certain am I that my answer is correct?"

If you're saying the answer is a certainty (probability = 1) - which I think you are - then you are clearly wrong.

If you're saying it's MOST LIKELY assuming ideal conditions over a huge number of trials that the answer is .7 X .7 X .7 then I agree (the Probability 101 answer). Just HOW likely is a question that can't be answered right now, pretty much all you can do is figure out how much UNCERTAINTY you're willing to live with before making a decision based on your calculation.

That's pretty close to the real life answer.