The Playoffs have begun!

Camron Rust · #25 (**permalink**) Thu Feb 26, 2004, 06:36pm

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Originally posted by Rich Fronheiser

Quote:

Originally posted by Camron Rust

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Originally posted by Rich Fronheiser

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Originally posted by A Pennsylvania Coach

Oh, and I completely disagree (and could back it up with stats) that it is harder for the offense to rebound missed FTs now. It is far easier, because the defense can't box out, and the players below the blocks are at a poor angle to rebound a shot from the FT line.

I agree entirely. Offensive rebounds are much easier. Moving the players back to sports 2, 3, and 4 like the NCAAW would return the advantage that used to exist when players could leave on the release.

I see this claim over and over but I just don't see it in the games. WHile it's not a guarantee, the defense gets an overwhelming majority of the rebounds on FTs.

You say the defense has no time to box out. However, the offense also does not have time to get around the defense.

Again, I simply don't see what you're claiming in my games.

If the offense gets more than about 5% of missed FT rebounds, it's too many. The number is more than it used to be. And where the ball ends up has more to do with the shot than with any rebounding technique. I'd like to see some hard stats, though.

The stats I had heard before this most recent change was that about 82% went to the defense. The change to leave the top spaces empty was to increase that number...to what level, I don't know.

Standard rebounds are much more even probably no more skewed than 60/40...maybe 70/30. Why should the defense get over 95% on a FT miss? If that is to be the case, why don't we just award the ball to the defense automatically.

What is the reason for FT to begin with. On a shot, in addition to penalizing the foul, it is to replace the opportunity to score.

Consider some numbers. Team field goal percentages are often 30-40% and team free throw percentages are probably 60-75%. Using 70%, the odds of missing both is about 9%; making both, 49%; making 1 and missing one, 42%. Using 60%, the numbers go to 16%, 36%, and 48%.

Taking just the latter option, there will be a rebound to be had in only 40% of the FT pairs (16 + 36/2 since the single miss may be the first of the two). There will be an average of

Where am I going with all this? I don't really know but I'm having a good time thinking about it. I might even end up changing my stance.

So, the 70% FT team will average 1.2 points per trip to the line. If you essentially guarantee the defensive possesion after the FTs, that results in an average possession score of 1.2 points.

However, if you look at the value of the 40% FG results, they get 0.8 points per attempt. Assuming a 50% offensive rebounding rate, they'll end up with a score about 52% of the possessions worth 1.04 points.

Of course, these number change with every team and style of play. A team with a great center that is the focal point of the entire offense will have a much high FG percentage and will have more rebounds but will have a lower FT percentage.

I'm not sure what conclusion I want to draw, if any, from my analysis but after giving it some thought, there's no way I'm going to not post it.

Conclude what you will from it.