Quote:
Originally posted by Forksref
I think the rule changes have almost completely taken away the strategy of the offensive FT rebound. When you could leave at the release, the defense had to maintain position (contact) a lot longer while waiting for the ball to hit the rim and come off.
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The rules did not change with respect to release or rim - just with respect to the numbers on the lane, which clearly now favor the defense. Also, you are correct that going on release allows the offense a bit of a chance for using a set of moves to get off the defender, and the offense can adjust to the defender as the game goes along.
What I think that going on rim does is add an element of luck, because there is no time for either team to set up properly for the rebound. Going on rim a matter of getting there quickest and getting lucky if the ball comes to you. The luck clearly favors the defense, and I would say that 80-90% is maybe the right number based on what I have seen - it is certainly not 95%. The rule would favor the defense even more if you stepped up one position on the lane and left the low blocks empty.