Racists?

[jkumpire]

...I would sue this clown and fry his methodology until it was extra crispy.

I cannot wait for the econ grad student's analysis of what his methodology. I'd also love to read the guy's paper. He is a classic example of what is wrong with higher education in America today. You find some complicated statistical model, speak in a specialist language that a regular person doesn't have access to, then massage the data to say what you want it to say. It gets done with crime stats, so-called global warming, so why not with baseball?

[Lawrence.Dorsey]

I have some statistics training and still use it from time to time in my job. What bothers me most about the article is that they mention terms like "statisitical power", "statistically significant', etc. yet they provide no degrees of freedom or probability values for their tests. In the field that I work, there's a standard convention for reporting statisitical results. Anytime you mention the word "significant" in a scientific paper, you should cite your results in some manner. I think any journal editor in my field would have torn this paper up simply on that alone.

Lawrence

[Dave Reed]

Here's the link to the paper and an associated FAQ. Note that the paper is unpublished (meaning it hasn't undergone peer review) yet.

http://www.eco.utexas.edu/faculty/Ha...istpapers.html

I find the raw data of the paper to be interesting. For example, there are 25% more white batters than pitchers, 76% more hispanic batters than pitchers, and 570% more black batters than pitchers. I wonder what can drive such a disparity? (And I'm pretty sure it isn't umpires!)

I can't comment on the utility or applicability of their econometric models, but the graphs which show the differences in pitcher performance (strikeouts, homeruns, hits, walks, runs, Bill James' Game Score, wins, ERA) depending on whether pitcher/umpire ethnicity matches or is different are provocative. These are just raw data; you can form your own opinion of the statistical validity.

[mbyron]

Originally Posted by Dave Reed

I find the raw data of the paper to be interesting. For example, there are 25% more white batters than pitchers, 76% more hispanic batters than pitchers, and 570% more black batters than pitchers. I wonder what can drive such a disparity? (And I'm pretty sure it isn't umpires!)

If pitchers are the dumbest players on the field, then the data seem to suggest that hispanics are slightly and blacks quite significantly smarter than whites.

[umpduck11]

Originally Posted by mbyron

If pitchers are the dumbest players on the field, then the data seem to suggest that hispanics are slightly and blacks quite significantly smarter than whites.

I hear that the PC police have issued a warrant for your arrest !

[SAump]

The stats are in.
85 white umps called strikes 329826 times.
3 latin umps called strikes 10681 times.
5 black umps called strikes 20302 times.

85 white umps were assumed to be perfect.
3 latin umps called strikes 959 less times than an equal number of their perfect white counterparts.
5 black umps called strikes 900 more times than an equal number of their perfect white counterparts.

The latin umps wanted to please everyone to prove they were up to the task.
The black umps wanted to show everyone proof they were up to the task.
The psychological theory behind these explanations are beyond the scope of post.

Latin and black umps, taken together, were "sepera-typed" from white umps by a total of 59 called strikes.
As a minority group, latin and hispanic umps perform up to the par with white umps.
59 pitches out of 30,983 pitches is roughly a 0.190% difference.

The stats and methodology used in this study were perfect.
There is NO racial evidence of discrimination by MLB umpires.
Everyone is happy!

[sri8527]

just for the sake of argument here, take race out of the equation, and focus on the "bias" used in the study. i am a proud red sox fan, thus i do not like the yankees. i show up at my 15/16 yr. old game, yankees/red sox does anyone really think my "bias" will kick in? I like Reebok, hate nike, that pitcher has nike head too toe, gonna get him? we all have some bias toward something, but to say one pitch, per game shows anything relevant, is trying too get your article published. IMHO.