[Raymond]

Originally Posted by Kansas Ref

*Rich and BNR---I think we all realize that there are "exceptions" and "outliers" (i.e., the 19 yr ole kid who is so awesome that he gets high level varsity tournaments in his 2nd year of NF officiating); however, the simple question posed here is: Given that an aspiring official has attended the requisite camps, officiated the requisite sub-varsity schedule, had no Arbiter declines, and is working with a fair assignor, then what is a reasonable amount of time ["seasons of officiating"] that they ought to realistically expect to be transitioned from sub-varsity to varsity?

I would expect that number to be "Five" seasons of officiating. I base this on the reasoning from a well-informed book about human cognitive development and expertise in task operations [the book= "The Tipping Point", Malcolm Gladwell] in which he asserts that 10,000 hours of training/experience/practice on a given complex task will generally provide enough interactions and unique episodes with the subject matter to enable a person to go from "beginner" to "experienced". So, 5 years of officiating (even if done for 3 month long NF seasons only plus combined with camp attendance and reffing non-NF games off season) will get you pretty close to that 10,000 hours. Furthermore, it was described that any additional training after 10,000 hours when the task is not systematically increased in complexity/challenge will actually result in an erosion of the intended developed skill.
And in closing, I realize I have been long-winded here, but we must treat this situation of "official recruitment/retention" in a well-considered manner. Thanks, All.

Outliers are created by training, a commitment to learning, and coach-ability. My opinion/observation is that officials who commit to higher level camps and training opportunities are ready for BV within 2-3 seasons of that commitment.