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I am willing to bet that Carmelo Anthony has a better first year than LeBron has in his second year.
It is more than just muscle that the HS kids lack. Every time a player steps up in level, the moves that used to work don't work so well anymore, at least not at the speed they worked before. Doesn't matter if you are talking about going from rec ball to travel ball, MS to HS, etc. Skipping a level often acts as somewhat of a set-back. It takes longer to develop (and some never do) when the leap is too great. Not saying that this is universally true, but the consensus in the league is that these direct from HS players take 3-4 years to get pro ready.
That said, if you can hold the kid after the initial contract, you will probably have a bonafide all star. And college kids can spend 3-4 years at school and either be unprepared or take a year or two to excel. And I wonder if it isn't more appropriate that an outstanding young player that doesn't want a college education goes straight to the pros rather than having a one-year stop a Syracuse.
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