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As Steve said "Award the base the umpire judges would have been reached if there was no obstruction", the rule is would not could and judgement not proof. If ITUJ, the runner might not have reached, that base should not be awarded, benefit of the doubt or not.
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Officiating takes more than OJT.
It's not our jobs to invent rulings to fit our personal idea of what should and should not be.
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