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In general, my rule of thumb involves control. If the player does not seem to have control of the ball, meaning that he can't really cause the ball to do what he desires, then it is a fumble. When the ball strikes the foot and starts to get away from him/her, it is clearly a fumble. I agree with you that oftentimes it is a judgement on the part of the official, but that is the reason that the official is there. These "judgements" are not just guesses but are based on the thorough study of the rules of the game.
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