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What percentage of teams that win the coin toss at the beginning of the game eventually win the game itself?
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This isn't relevant. The OT rules allow for a team to take the ball down the field, score in any manner, and not be subject to playing defense. That would not happen in a regular game due to halftime, at the very least. A 60 minute clock ensures it won't happen either.
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And what percentage win without giving the other team a series?
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Certainly relevant and a much better question. According to a site, from 2000-07, 30% of the games were decided with one team not touching the ball in OT. This was roughly half of the percentage the site listed for OT games where the toss winner won the game (compared to the above listed percentage, which may still be accurate, but over a different time frame).
Assuming the 73% figure is accurate and the site I referenced -- 60+% in this decade -- is accurate, it shows that the coin toss advantage is diminished or diminishing over time. There could, of course, be an aberration, and it means both nothing and that the 60% figure for an extended time is reasonable. But does that mean the next 8 years could bring an 85% rate? Unlikely, but possible. Of course, with stats, anything is possible.
I agree somewhat with the OP. I think play in OT needs to "collapse down" or become progressively harder. If 2 teams are even after 60 minutes, the way they are playing isn't working to decide a winner. I would break up the OT period into 3 5 minute periods: eliminate the kicking try and field goal in the first -- similar to what the poster says. 4th down from the 30 going in? You have to go for it. In the second OT period, I'd eliminate punting. 4th down and 15 from the 30 going out? Better make it. I'm not sure what I'd change for the final period. Any suggestions?
I, however, don't want to see the NCAA rule change, except maybe to eliminate kick trys and field goals.