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Originally Posted by ChuckElias
I'm not discounting his ability to win it. It's certainly possible. I just think it's very unlikely, given Beckett's history. C.C. is a good pitcher, no question, but would I have as much confidence in him as in Beckett? Not even close.
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The statistics already quoted demonstrate your bias: you simply know Beckett and don't know Sabathia. This explains your (misplaced) confidence.
This year, head to head vs. Johan Santana (Cy Young for life, it seems), we have: Sabathia 3, Santana 0.
The advantage Beckett has is that he has shown up for the post-season, and Sabathia has yet to. The Red Sox will not, however, win a series if the only Indians pitcher they can beat is Sabathia.
My prediction is that the ace of the pennant winner will get the Cy Young this year, regardless of who wins tonight.