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Yes but there is no need to guess. You have to learn the difference between loose ball plays and running plays. Since this is a fumble behind the line, it is a loose ball play. Then you have to know the basic spot, but that's easy since it is the previous spot for loose ball plays or the end of the run for running plays. Finally, you have to know the all but one principle but that's easy too.
Loose ball play
Basic spot is the previous spot (where the ball was snapped)
Foul by the offense behind the basic spot (the "one" in All but one) so we penalize half the distance from the spot of the foul (4 yard line). K will re-kick Fourth and 18 from the 2 yard line.
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