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9 times out of ten, the defender backs away rather than letting himself get pushed down. If he holds his ground, then he's more likely to get the charge when he gets pushed backward.
To catch a flop, the only way I know for sure is to see when player starts falling. Otherwise, you have to guess at the amount of force used in comparison with the velocity of the fall. It's not perfect, so if the defender at least waits until there's contact, I'm more likely than not to have a call.
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Sprinkles are for winners.
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