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I let whether the basket is made inform my judgement on marginal contact.
Some contact clearly disadvantages a player and will always be called. Sometimes this player will be able to overcome the disadvantage and make a basket. He is rewarded with the "and 1."
Some contact is so trivial that it will never be called. Tough luck.
Some contact could go either way. For this contact, I look at the result to see what disadvantage might have occured. If I haven't determined within a second that the player was disadvantaged, I pass. If in that second something "bad" happens to the offended player (missed or ackward shot, interupted dribble, bad pass, etc.), I call the contact. If none of those things happen, what disadvantage has occured?
Now, on long shots you usually don't have the chance to see if it is good or not so you have to go with less information than you can go with in the post.
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