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I don't think you can wait to see if the shot goes in or not before you decide to call a foul or not (too much time elapses). I think the better way to judge the severity of contact is whether the offensive player continues the shooting motion relatively "freely" - that is to say: did he play thru the contact or did the contact significantly restrict the shooting motion?
You can't assume the contact made the shooter miss the shot (after all plenty of shots are missed when there is no contact at all).
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