He's sure. The rule says a pitcher cannot throw to an unoccupied base except for the purposes of making a play. This means that as soon as the runner makes a legitimate attempt to advance to the previously unoccupied base the pitcher can throw to that base.
This is from Evans.
Customs and Usage: If the umpire is convinced that a runner is making a bona fide effort to advance to an unoccupied base, then the pitcher is not guilty of throwing to an unoccupied base. See 8.05 End Notes Approved Ruling (b).
Play.
No outs...3-2 count...runners on first and second. The right-handed pitcher has properly stopped at the bottom of his stretch. As soon as his free foot starts up... each runner breaks for the next base. Without crossing the plane of the rubber with his free foot, the pitcher fires the ball to third in plenty of time to nail the surprised runner. Is this legal.
RULING: This is legal since a play was made. If the runner were not running, a balk should be called for throwing to an unoccupied base.
Tim.
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