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It all comes down to whether "as she is completing the tag on the up swing (swipe tag) the mitt hits the runners knee and the ball falls out as she is bringing the mitt up"
means:
(1) the ball was secure enough for the "up swing" to have "the ball falls out " because "the mitt hits the runners knee"
or
(2) the ball falls out as "she is bringing the mitt up" because it was not secure in the first place.
The OP gives both alternatives as the question. It can't be both, no additional assuming is needed, and the umpire on the play must JUDGE what happened, i.e.earn his/her pay. I can't imagine that 100% of us would make the same call.
If (1) is true as most of us think, the runner is out regardless of what happens after the "tag".
If (2) is true as others think, the runner is safe.
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Officiating takes more than OJT.
It's not our jobs to invent rulings to fit our personal idea of what should and should not be.
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