[mbyron]

I think that replay *will* come to baseball, but not in the short run. The most obvious application, as has been pointed out, will be for fair/foul, HR/GRD, and fan interference. These calls often have an immediate impact on the score.

I think that at some point replay will be introduced for safe/out. Traditionalists will insist that umpiring is "part of the game," but that didn't stop replay from getting into the NFL, where refereeing is "part of the game." Safe/out is will be a reviewable call at some point, probably with each coach having a limited number of "challenges" per 9 innings.

I doubt that ball/strike will ever be a reviewable call. This would slow down the game too much and occur in too many instances (passed ball, dropped third strike, steal attempt) where it would disrupt the flow of the game.

The main reason I believe that replay is inevitable is that the same logic applies as applied in football: the replay is already there, why not use it to get the call right? If the disruption can be minimized by judicious use and careful rule-writing, why not?

The best counter-argument is: the pro umps are so damn good, they almost always get it right already, even when you thought they booted it when you watched it live. Pro umps are much better (have a much lower "error percentage") than pro referees in football. So even a small disruption is not worth it, since there's just not that much to correct.

I hope the counter-argument wins, but I fear it won't. We love technology too much in our culture.