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Declining the penalty would result in the TD.
The basic spot for accepting the penalty would be the end of the related run, so it would be the spot of the fumble. The penalty would either be 5 or 15 depending on the official's call.
I do not believe any of the recent rule changes modified the "related run" basic spot theory, so I would not give them the option of assessing the penalty on the succeeding spot (on the try).
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