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Only #2 is a possible award of the next base and then only if IYJ the runner would have reached it, not might or could. That requires judging an attempt would have been made.
Don't forget if the out is INT, that takes precedence even if between the same bases as OBS>
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Officiating takes more than OJT.
It's not our jobs to invent rulings to fit our personal idea of what should and should not be.
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