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I have no rule of thumb, just judgement. But I usually go with the "banger". If there is a banger at the base beyond the one awarded, I say he would have made it and there is no out. But if thrown out be good distance, no dice. Of course you could award a base beyond if the runner stopped running, if he was more than incidentally obstructed. Example of incidental obstruction would be bumpging into first baseman rounding 1B. More than incidental could be hard bump into first baseman and falling down, getting up and making it to 2B. On a ball hit down the first base line that the RF has to go to fence to get this could be considered a "he would have made 3rd call". But I usually stick to bangers. They are much easier to explain.
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