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No great rule of thumb, but usually as the play continues you get a feel for where they would have ended up. For instance, BR interfered with rounding first, slows a bit and continues, safe on a close play at 3rd - the award is 3rd unless you think they were drastically slowed down on the interference. Or - same BR rounds 3rd, thinks about heading home, but decides against it, as it looks to be a close play. Without the interference, home it is.
The rest of the play can OFTEN (but not always) tell you what to award. The worst is when there's an inadvertent takedown (BR rounds first, hits firstbaseman and they both go down) when the ball hasn't been fielded yet (still heading to the wall) That's a toughy.
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