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Old Fri May 22, 2020, 03:59pm
Texas Aggie Texas Aggie is offline
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Even in Texas, at this point, I think it is 50/50. The problem is not so much "will the state organization (UIL) allow it?" I think the answer to that will be yes. The issue will be individual districts with the following considerations:

1. All school districts will return to on campus classes in SOME form but may have A/B type or on/off, totally changed schedules, etc. How will the individual districts treat sports?

2. They will definitely not play without fans as gate receipts are the primary driver of revenue.

3. How many parents are going to let their kids play? If smaller schools have a big hit to their players or don't have the students come to the school to fill out teams, the UIL may get the message that competition will suffer and kill the season very quickly. I really don't think UIL will proceed with only bigger schools playing football. Cross reference number one above with if individual schools say in July or August they aren't playing sports, then UIL may say it won't happen this fall.

4. How many school district staff are going to be unavailable due to age and other health issues? This includes coaches. Districts will have to make some accommodations.

5. It isn't just games and practices, you have bus trips, away locker rooms, officials, concessions (other revenue, but some districts let bands and other orgs keep that), and bands/drill teams/cheerleaders. Students are at a very low (almost zero) risk of contracting (at least among themselves) and virtually zero risk of spreading to adults, but fear may take over.

Last fall in Texas had weird weather -- HOT September followed by an unseasonably cold October. The year before, we had more rain than I've seen in a decade or so. To the extent that weather has an effect on this crap, and given that decisions have to be made ahead of time, they may want to play early and get it over with or just wait until the spring. I don't think either idea is workable, which means they'll possibly just end up cancelling fall and winter sports.

I'm preparing for one or two of my private school games to not happen as I think one or both of the school in the games will either not open (due to enrollment) or the team won't make. The ability of parents to send their kids to private schools and pay that tuition this year will be tested like never before and it will hit athletics hard. If the season happens, I would not be surprised to see a team play 4-5 games all year with the other games cancelled.

Best guess: we start and the season ends up being cancelled for one reason or another.
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