It's not random, but it's not set in stone, either.
I would say the vast majority of the time the setter is the first server. But sometimes, the setter is the LAST server. I actually made a post once asking WHY a team would start its server in Position 6. Felix explained that sometimes the coach wants the best hitter to start in the left front (Position 4) so that she has more time in the front row at the start of the set.
So for most teams, if they are serving first in the set, they'll start in Rotation 1, with the setter as their first server. If they're receiving first, they start in Rotation 6, with the setter in the front right position.
But occasionally, you'll see a team that starts in Rotation 2, with the setter in the middle back position.
That's been my experience, anyway.
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