Obstruction -- always a base award ??

[18597]

Co-ed SlowPitch, R1,R2. Batter hits the ball to the left side of infield, both F5 and F6 move to field the ball. R2 swerves to avoid contact with with the fielders, but is not completely successful, lightly brushing against F5. F6 fields the ball and steps on third base.

The remedy for obstruction is to award the runner the base they would have reached had the obstruction not occurred, but what if, in the opinion of the umpire, R2 would not have reached 3rd safely if the obstruction had not occurred. Is R2 still awarded 3 base?