ESPN Tournament Challenge

[MD Longhorn]

Just did the napkin math on just the first round (2nd is more complicated as I can't just assume 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc - but have to go by the same percentages I calc'd for each upset in the first round).

I used the following odds:
1 vs 16 = 99.99%
2 vs 15 = 96%
3 vs 14 = 92%
4 vs 13 = 85%
5 vs 12 = 72% (I was tempted to say 50/50 given the oddities we've seen on these over the years)
6 vs 11 = 66%
7 vs 10 = 60%
8 vs 9 = 53%

You are 27,574 times more likely to get a perfect bracket than what was posted above. (I'll work on adding the other rounds, but it's more than napkin math) Or 334 trillion to 1.