ESPN Tournament Challenge

[#olderthanilook]

Let's see here - the following original "Big 8+4" teams are IN:

Colorado
Missouri
K State
Kansas
Iowa St
Okie St
OU

and these are OUT:

Texas
aTm
TCU
Baylor



Too bad Nebraska couldn't find their way into the Dance to make this illustration even sweeter.

[Rich]

I could do well or I could flame out miserably.

Just like every other year.

[grunewar]

Originally Posted by Rich

I could do well or I could flame out miserably.

Just like every other year.

My brackets usually look pretty good.....right up until game time of the first play-in game. Then it all goes to heck in a hand-basket!

[MD Longhorn]

In all of my brackets I have Louisville. Then I listened to half an hour of a rant no ESPN about how Louisville has the toughest road and there's no way they get there --- I am now more confident in my pick.

[MD Longhorn]

Originally Posted by #olderthanilook

Let's see here - the following original "Big 8+4" teams are IN:

Colorado
Missouri
K State
Kansas
Iowa St
Okie St
OU

and these are OUT:

Texas
aTm
TCU
Baylor



Too bad Nebraska couldn't find their way into the Dance to make this illustration even sweeter.

I would reply with an in-depth analysis of the Southwest Conference... but it would go something like this:

"Nothing to report here. Move along."

[grunewar]

The odds of you filling out a perfect bracket this year are a staggering 1 in 9.2 quintillion. That's a nine with 18 zeroes or 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 if you're not into the whole rounding thing.

How big is that?

• That's one billion, 9.2 billion times.

• It's 500,000 times more than our $17 trillion national debt.

• You'd have a better chance of hitting four holes-in-one in a single round of golf.

The 1 in 9.2 quintillion number is straight mathematics. It figures out how many possible ways the 63 game results on your bracket could be filled out. (Two to the sixty-third power.)

[MD Longhorn]

Originally Posted by grunewar

The odds of you filling out a perfect bracket this year are a staggering 1 in 9.2 quintillion. That's a nine with 18 zeroes or 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 if you're not into the whole rounding thing.

How big is that?

• That's one billion, 9.2 billion times.

• It's 500,000 times more than our $17 trillion national debt.

• You'd have a better chance of hitting four holes-in-one in a single round of golf.

The 1 in 9.2 quintillion number is straight mathematics. It figures out how many possible ways the 63 game results on your bracket could be filled out. (Two to the sixty-third power.)

I've seen this math before, and honestly, it's quite inflated. Statistics classes in me coming back to mind...

The assumption there is that each game has exactly a 50% chance of hitting either result. But that's not true at all. Take the 1-seed vs 16-seed games as the extreme example. I suppose the chance of a 1 seed losing is not exactly zero, but it's damn close. Take as a given (near 100%) that the picker will pick 4 1-seeds to win, and 4 1-seeds do actually win, your odds of a perfect bracket become 16 times greater ... a mere 576.46 quadrillion to 1.

For each set of matchups, the odds are not 50-50, and for each of those that are not, if you also assume that the picking people mirror somewhat the actual odds (and not 50-50), the odds of the overall package improve.

(For an example of that, consider 4 games with 75% odds, say, 4 4-13 matchups:

The odds of getting these 4 correct are not 1 in 2^4 (1/16 = 6.25%) but rather 15.2587891%. 2.44 times greater than expected. Those 4 games change the overall odds to (just) 236.25 quadrillion.)

Do that for each round of matchups, and the odds of a perfect bracket are actually MUCH greater than 9 quintillion.

[MD Longhorn]

Just did the napkin math on just the first round (2nd is more complicated as I can't just assume 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc - but have to go by the same percentages I calc'd for each upset in the first round).

I used the following odds:
1 vs 16 = 99.99%
2 vs 15 = 96%
3 vs 14 = 92%
4 vs 13 = 85%
5 vs 12 = 72% (I was tempted to say 50/50 given the oddities we've seen on these over the years)
6 vs 11 = 66%
7 vs 10 = 60%
8 vs 9 = 53%

You are 27,574 times more likely to get a perfect bracket than what was posted above. (I'll work on adding the other rounds, but it's more than napkin math) Or 334 trillion to 1.

[grunewar]

MD - what are the odds of Robert Morris beating Ky in round one of the NIT?

Anyone see the flagrant 2 w/ 3:41 left in the game? Yikes.

[26 Year Gap]

[QUOTE=MD Longhorn;885403]I've seen this math before, and honestly, it's quite inflated. Statistics classes in me coming back to mind...

The assumption there is that each game has exactly a 50% chance of hitting either result. But that's not true at all. Take the 1-seed vs 16-seed games as the extreme example. I suppose the chance of a 1 seed losing is not exactly zero, but it's damn close. Take as a given (near 100%) that the picker will pick 4 1-seeds to win, and 4 1-seeds do actually win, your odds of a perfect bracket become 16 times greater ... a mere 576.46 quadrillion to 1.

For each set of matchups, the odds are not 50-50, and for each of those that are not, if you also assume that the picking people mirror somewhat the actual odds (and not 50-50), the odds of the overall package improve.

(For an example of that, consider 4 games with 75% odds, say, 4 4-13 matchups:

The odds of getting these 4 correct are not 1 in 2^4 (1/16 = 6.25%) but rather 15.2587891%. 2.44 times greater than expected. Those 4 games change the overall odds to (just) 236.25 quadrillion.)

Do that for each round of matchups, and the odds of a perfect bracket are actually MUCH greater than 9 quintillion.[/QUOTE]

Senator Everett Dirksen would have been proud.

[#olderthanilook]

Originally Posted by grunewar

MD - what are the odds of Robert Morris beating Ky in round one of the NIT?

Anyone see the flagrant 2 w/ 3:41 left in the game? Yikes.

It's being talked about around the water cooler this morning at work.

Does anyone have a video link?

[Raymond]

Originally Posted by #olderthanilook

It's being talked about around the water cooler this morning at work.

Does anyone have a video link?

You haven't looked very hard.

[#olderthanilook]

Originally Posted by BadNewsRef

You haven't looked very hard.

Touche'

I just finished watching it in the official thread.

[JugglingReferee]

Originally Posted by MD Longhorn

Just did the napkin math

Geek!


(Which I appreciate. )

[BillyMac]

I'm in. Go Cardinals.



Who do I send my money to? Mark Padgett?

Also. How does one pronounce the capital of Kentucky? "Louis-ville", or "Louie-ville"?